report September 1, 2021 ARGENTINA: Ruling coalition outwardly united but limping towards primary vote Party primaries (known as the Open, Simultaneous and Obligatory Primaries, or PASO) take place on 12 September. These are the prelude to the 14 November partial legislative mid-term elections, in which half of the lower house and one-third of... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 1, 2021 Zambia: Hichilema’s honeymoon Freshly inaugurated President Hakainde Hichilema is riding a wave of goodwill. Yet the reform process ahead will undoubtedly be politically painful and administratively challenging; it will be measured by the next budget, IMF talks and debt restructuring efforts. The... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 1, 2021 CHINA: Huarong and Evergrande show Beijing’s pragmatic approach to moral hazard A group of state-owned financial institutions will recapitalize Huarong, the state-owned financial conglomerate that fell into distress after the ex- chairman was convicted of bribery and later executed. Though Huarong's exchange filing did not reveal details of the state... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 1, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 1, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report August 31, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, a new congressional session opens in Mexico. Brazil gears up for potentially stormy protests next week. In Chile, another pension withdrawal is under consideration but faces a more difficult path than previous withdrawal initiatives. Meanwhile, the race... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report August 31, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China is cracking down on labor abuses in the tech sector. Zambia's new Finance Minister is expected to prioritize IMF talks. Meanwhile, a no- confidence motion against Thailand's Prime Minister is likely to fail, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report August 31, 2021 GREECE: A poorly executed cabinet reshuffle turns into a political fiasco A limited cabinet reshuffle aimed at leaving the wildfire damage behind has become a source of embarrassment for the ruling party as a newly-appointed minister declined the job. A new pandemic wave in the Fall could be the next... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report August 31, 2021 JAPAN: Suga fights to win, as Kishida challenges and Kono ponders With the pandemic reaching new levels of intensity, struggling Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will fight for his position as head of his party and the government. Fumio Kishida is the most significant challenger to declare to date, while the... By James Brady Teneo
report August 31, 2021 PERU: Congress finally backs new cabinet but stability to remain fragile After an extended session stretching over two days, Congress yesterday, 27 August, voted to endorse President Pedro Castillo's first cabinet. There were 73 votes in favor versus 50 against. Below we examine the key takeaways from the vote. The... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report August 26, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Duterte for VP next year is all sound and fury On Tuesday, 24 August, President Rodrigo Duterte said that he is accepting the endorsement of his party, PDP-Laban, for him to run for the vice-presidency in the 9 May 2022 elections. In justifying his unconventional decision, Duterte said he... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report August 26, 2021 POLAND: Will PiS govern until the 2023 general election? The departure of the junior coalition partner Agreement from the United Right coalition government and notable difficulties in advancing the controversial "lex TVN" bill in parliament earlier this month raise questions about whether Mateusz Morawiecki's government still has a... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report August 26, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Luis Cornago, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report August 26, 2021 EUROPE: Three pandemic management scenarios for the fall With levels of activity expected to ramp up after the summer holidays, significant uncertainty remains about the potential impact of Covid-19 across the continent in the coming months. Hopes of reaching herd immunity seem to be fading due to... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Luis Cornago, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report August 26, 2021 MALAYSIA: Is five decades of politics over? The political dynamics that had kept Malaysian politics stable since the 1970s have been unravelling gradually over the past decade. The return of a United Malays National Organization (UMNO) politician to the prime ministership is not an automatic signal... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report August 26, 2021 GERMANY: The rise and rise of the SPD – Implications Just over a month ahead of the 26 September Bundestag elections, momentum for the Social Democrats (SPD) appears to be growing. Their chancellor candidate, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, has long been the most popular of the three contenders. Now,... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report August 26, 2021 KENYA: Constitutional referendum dead, presidential succession less certain On 20 August, the Court of Appeal upheld a high court ruling declaring several aspects of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) unconstitutional. The ruling represents another blow to President Uhuru Kenyatta's and opposition leader Raila Odinga's plans to amend... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report August 26, 2021 CHILE: Examining the presidential line-up and scenarios The line-up of nine candidates competing for the 21 November presidential election is now complete. The radical left and center-right have the best chance of reaching the December run-off amid the ongoing struggles of the center-left. A fragmented line-up... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report August 26, 2021 INDIA: Monetizing infrastructure – the devil is in the detail The government has announced a massive plan for infrastructure development but will retain ownership of assets. State governments need to buy in for success. If it works, it can recover lost political ground for the Modi government. Even as... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report August 26, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
