SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt restructuring talk targets private creditors
While the G20 advocate for a recalibration of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s pandemic management support, reforms and more comprehensive solutions to debt problems remain a medium-term prospect. Yet in the hardest hit countries, pressure on private creditors to partake in debt restructuring negotiations will intensify in the short term. The restructuring case of Chad […]
COTE D’IVOIRE: Gbago’s new party reshuffles Ivorian politics
Over the weekend of 16/17 October, former president Laurent Gbagbo (76) officially launched his new African People’s Party of Ivory Coast (PPA-CI) in Abidjan. By acclamation, some 1,600 delegates also elected Gbagbo as the party’s first president. The new leftist party has the potential of becoming a key political force by the time of the […]
NIGERIA: Buhari’s final full-year budget stays true to form
On 7 October, President Muhammadu Buhari presented the 2022 appropriation bill to both houses of the national assembly. In some respects, the draft budget builds on last year’s tendency of putting forward sensible assumptions on some accounts, while others remain as illusory as ever. Meanwhile, Buhari will leave his successor a record pile of debt […]
GUINEA: Miners’ ‘selective review’ risks persist amid transition charter
On 27 September, the junta led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya issued a ‘transition charter’ outlining the guiding principles, institutions, and mechanisms governing the transition phase, which remains without an official end date. Unsurprisingly, the charter confirms the junta’s central role in the process and installs Doumbouya as president with far-reaching powers. While the charter’s short-term […]
NIGERIA: Goodluck Jonathan’s potential comeback
Rumors that former president Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) may soon be defecting from his People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) to become the ruling party’s flagbearer for the 2023 presidential election may not be unsubstantiated. However, an important constitutional obstacle would need to be removed first, which may well happen as a […]
NIGERIA: How FX scarcity, VAT spat point to 2023
As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to clamp down on USD sales in the parallel market, the soaring demand for the greenback in that segment may be fueled by the onset of the political campaigning season. In the same vein, the controversy around the jurisdiction over Value Added Tax (VAT) collection and distribution […]
GUINEA: Following coup d’etat, miners face medium-term risks
On 5 September, special forces soldiers led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya arrested President Alpha Conde. During a subsequent broadcast on state TV, the putschists announced the suspension of state institutions, the temporary closure of national borders, and a nationwide curfew. In addition, a new constitution would be drawn up, and a’union government’ would be formed, […]
KENYA: Constitutional referendum dead, presidential succession less certain
On 20 August, the Court of Appeal upheld a high court ruling declaring several aspects of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) unconstitutional. The ruling represents another blow to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s plans to amend the constitution via a popular referendum, which appears dead in the water ahead of the 2022 […]
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: IMF SDRs – trickle-down or redistribution?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) remains inadequate vis-a-vis the region’s external financing needs. Yet, the debate on how rich countries can transfer SDRs to countries in greater need has been dragging on for months. Experience with multilateral pandemic crisis management to date suggests a sizeable redistribution of SDRs […]
NIGERIA: As PIB becomes PIA, fuel subsidy will test reform efforts’ seriousness
On 18 August, President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated a steering committee to see through the implementation over the next 12 months of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which he had signed into law earlier this week. The quick formation of the committee, which will report directly to the president, suggests the administration is eager to implement […]
