Author: Gabriel Wildau

Gabriel Wildau

Gabriel Wildau is a Senior Vice President focusing on political risk analysis in China. He was previously Shanghai Bureau Chief for the Financial Times, where he covered China’s macro-economy, financial system, and markets.… Read the rest

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CHINA: The latest evidence on supply-chain migration

  • Evidence of large-scale supply chain migration away from China remains scarce.
  • Covid-19 appears to have slowed or even reversed the decline of China’s global export market share low-margin consumer goods, while consolidating market-share gains in capital goods.
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CHINA: New “dual circulation” policy aims to hedge decoupling risks

  • New economic strategy reflects the Chinese leadership’s recognition that they can no longer rely on unfettered access to foreign export markets and key foreign inputs.
  • China is not abandoning globalization, but Beijing is seeking a hedged integration that preserves the benefits of globalization where possible, while also shoring up the vulnerabilities that interdependence creates.
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CHINA: New anti-corruption purge reflects political maneuvering

  • The Communist Party’s new “rectification” campaign is the latest incarnation of President Xi Jinping’s signature anti-corruption initiative and is focused on police corruption.
  • Like earlier anti-corruption purges, the rectification campaign appears to combine a genuine effort to combat abuses of power with elements of a political and ideological purge.
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CHINA/US: Does Beijing intend to block the sale of TikTok?

  • New Chinese export-control rules require a license for exporting content-recommendation algorithms, giving Beijing the authority to block a pending sale of TikTok.
  • But Beijing’s intentions are unclear; it is possible that Chinese authorities still intend to let the sale proceed, once they have made a gesture of asserting their sovereignty.
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CHINA: Quiet central bank intervention restrains RMB appreciation

  • The People’s Bank of China appears to be quietly intervening through proxy banks to resist upward pressure on the renminbi amid broad US dollar weakness.
  • The scale of central bank intervention appears modest; rather than actively weakening the RMB, the PBoC is “leaning against the wind” to restrain excessive appreciation.
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