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US/CHINA: Last-minute Trump actions leave Biden with tough choices

( 6 mins read ) The Trump administration announced a flurry of coercive policies against China in its final days, in an apparent effort to lock the Biden administration into a confrontational stance. This note lists the recent actions – several of which were previously flagged – along with forecasts on whether President Joe Biden

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The Biden Agenda Unleashed

( < 1 min read ) Related Reports Six Risks to the Post‐Coronavirus Recovery ASIA: Biden reassures Asian allies while stressing new areas for cooperation MIDDLE EAST: Biden will not turn on US partners in the region JAPAN: Abe’s resignation leaves successor to face a challenging policy agenda JAPAN: Abe’s resignation leaves successor to face a

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MIDDLE EAST: Neighbors mend fences with Qatar

( 3 mins read ) Qatar signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the other Gulf Cooperation Council states to mend a 3 and half year old rift. This agreement is more of a ceasefire than a peace agreement, and tensions will continue to simmer. Today, 5 January, in Saudi Arabia,

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TURKEY: Covid-19 vaccination program likely to fall short of its targets

( 5 mins read ) The government’s planned Covid-19 vaccination program appears set to fall short of its targets and potentially add to the damage that its often confused response to the pandemic has already caused to its credibility. On the logistical front, it is still unclear how the vaccination program will be administered. The

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MEXICO: Early steps on vaccination belie challenges to come

( 3 mins read ) The government is touting its achievement as the first Latin American country to begin vaccinating its population against Covid-19; the first vaccinations of frontline medical personnel started on 24 December using the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The government has also signed a series of large-scale vaccine contracts, including with AstraZeneca, CanSino Biologics,

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CHINA/EUROPE: Investment pact is economic win for EU, political win for Beijing

( 5 mins read ) Following seven years of negotiation, Beijing and Brussels concluded negotiations on an EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) on 30 December. Beijing’s willingness to accept a relatively one-sided deal reflects China’s concern to avoid international isolation and decoupling amid the ongoing transition in the US. The politics around the deal

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The Year Of COVID: Retrospective of My 2020 Trades

( 8 mins read ) As one dog said to the other, “it’s been a long seven years.” That dog year equivalent to human years captures the twists and turns of 2020 as every month seemed like an entire investing year. My trade recommendations in 2020 reflected those rapid shifts from riskon to risk-off, having

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