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EUROPE: Political risks around the second Covid-19 wave

( 6 mins read ) – Despite differences between national pandemic experiences, the specter of renewed ICU shortages is currently prompting governments across Europe to return to more restrictive measures. – Fears of medical capacity issues might also have a positive effect on public support for new measures going forward, increasing governments’ leeway to deal

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CHINA: Beijing may resist G20’s Common Framework for debt reduction

( 5 mins read ) Beijing is resisting pressure from the G20 to adopt a Common Framework on debt relief that covers non-official, commercial loans to low-income countries. The Finance Ministry refuses to classify China Development Bank (CDB) as an official bilateral creditor subject to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). Chinese authorities are willing

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SOUTH AFRICA: Is the MTBPS worth the paper it’s written on?

( 5 mins read ) Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) includes a less “active” stabilization of South Africa’s runaway debt than promised in June. The government now makes even bigger promises on cutting the public-sector wage bill – a good signal but implementation prospects remain uncertain. Other than an expected ZAR

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Comment – Default Options

( 11 mins read ) The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liquidity support provided to date is looking increasingly inadequate. Defaults threaten to

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POLAND: PiS moves toward challenging but inevitable coal phase-out

( 3 mins read ) The Polish government appears committed to finally start the transition away from coal in the power sector. This will require difficult compromises with the country’s influential mining unions, and may trigger new protests and lower support for the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party in its electoral strongholds. Nuclear power

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TANZANIA: A referendum on Magufuli’s populist path

( 4 mins read ) It is widely considered a foregone conclusion that President John Magufuli will be reelected in general elections on 28 October, as the race seems overwhelmingly skewed in favor of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). Yet a loose coalition between the main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, around presidential aspirant

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MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19

( < 1 min read ) Below is this week’s updated table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Click on ‘View PDF’ below

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NIGERIA: What next for #endSARS?

( 4 mins read ) The #endSARS movement will likely retreat to social media for the foreseeable future and forfeit much of its leverage as a result. Past precedent suggests little of substance will emanate from the official commissions of inquiry set up to investigate the armed forces’ human rights abuses. Medium term, a politicized

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MALAYSIA: PM Muhyiddin survives, barely

( 3 mins read ) The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) decided late Monday evening to continue supporting Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Over the weekend, the prime minister had asked the king to declare a state of emergency, which would have forestalled any attempt to bring down his government, either by the opposition or from

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CHILE: Key takeaways from constitutional referendum

( 5 mins read ) A landslide in favor of a new constitution marks the beginning of an intense electoral cycle as well as the two-year constitutional process. The results do not necessarily undermine the mechanism to ensure consensus and moderation in the new constitution. A relatively high turnout should give the constitutional process legitimacy

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Editor's Picks

EUROPE: Political risks around the second Covid-19 wave

( 6 mins read ) – Despite differences between national pandemic experiences, the specter of renewed ICU shortages is currently prompting governments across Europe to return to more restrictive measures. – Fears of medical capacity issues might also have a positive effect on public support for new measures going forward, increasing governments’ leeway to deal

Read More »

CHINA: Beijing may resist G20’s Common Framework for debt reduction

( 5 mins read ) Beijing is resisting pressure from the G20 to adopt a Common Framework on debt relief that covers non-official, commercial loans to low-income countries. The Finance Ministry refuses to classify China Development Bank (CDB) as an official bilateral creditor subject to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). Chinese authorities are willing

Read More »

Comment – Default Options

( 11 mins read ) The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liquidity support provided to date is looking increasingly inadequate. Defaults threaten to

Read More »

INDIA: Politics begins around a vaccine that is yet to be developed

( 3 mins read ) With the last set of restrictions imposed to check the spread of Covid-19 – the near total ban on international travel – about to be lifted, discussion and politics is veering round to the vaccine and how it will be distributed. The government has announced that while commercial international travel

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PBoC likely to keep Renminbi on tight leash

( 10 mins read ) Only four currencies have appreciated by more than 4% versus US Dollar since end-July: the high-yielding South African Rand (4.6%) and Mexican Peso (5.8%), the Chinese Renminbi (4.4%) and Korean Won (5.2%). The Renminbi’s steady pace of appreciation will, all other things equal, put further downward pressure on Chinese headline

Read More »

MACRO: Policy Responses to Covid-19

( < 1 min read ) Below is this week’s updated table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Click on ‘View PDF’

Read More »

ARGENTINA: The Government Runs Behind the Exchange Crisis

( 14 mins read ) Last week, there were both monetary policies and declarations. On one hand, minister Guzmán hinted at the outlines to an arrangement with the IMF in his speech at the IDEA forum. An agenda to lower the deficit to zero and impose limits on the Central Bank’s financing of the Treasury,

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