Latam March 3, 2021 ARGENTINA: Electoral considerations outranking speedy IMF resolution Argentina, Emerging Markets, Politics IMF Nicholas Watson It looks increasingly as if the government will try to push talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) beyond October’s partial mid-term legislative elections. President Alberto Fernandez’s combative 1 March speech to mark the opening of the new congressional... Read More...
Latam February 24, 2021 ARGENTINA: Scandal over “VIP vaccines” has government worried Argentina, Emerging Markets, Politics vaccines Nicholas Watson President Alberto Fernandez continues to fight a rearguard action to limit the political fallout from last week’s revelations about a group of officials, government allies, and the well-connected who secretly received Covid-19 vaccines in violation of eligibility rules.… <a... Read More...
Latam February 9, 2021 ARGENTINA: How vaccines, the economy, and elections fit together Argentina, Emerging Markets, Politics Nicholas Watson The 2021 electoral process involves obligatory party primaries scheduled for 8 August followed by partial legislative mid-terms on 24 October. The mid-terms will not just determine governability in the second half of President Alberto Fernandez’s administration, but will also... Read More...
March 6, 2020 Nicholas Watson Nicholas Watson Nicholas Watson leads Teneo’s political risk coverage for Spanish-speaking Latin America. He has over 15 years’ experience creating and leading analytic teams dedicated to providing exceptional, actionable political intelligence, bespoke consulting and advisory work for a wide range of corporate,... Read More...
Latam January 14, 2021 CUBA/VENEZUELA: What lies ahead under a Biden presidency Cuba, Emerging Markets, Politics, Venezuela Biden Nicholas Watson Cuba and Venezuela rank among the more difficult challenges facing incoming US President Joe Biden in Latin America. US domestic political factors go some way to explaining why policy shifts are most likely to be incremental.… Read the... Read More...
Europe January 5, 2021 TURKEY: Covid-19 vaccination program likely to fall short of its targets Emerging Markets, Politics, Turkey editorial, covid-19 Nicholas Watson The government’s planned Covid-19 vaccination program appears set to fall short of its targets and potentially add to the damage that its often confused response to the pandemic has already caused to its credibility.… Read the rest... Read More...
Latam March 2, 2021 ECUADOR: Electoral tussle drags on as IMF deal frays Ecuador, Politics IMF Nicholas Watson Officially, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition – whose leader in the shadows is former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) – and Guillermo Lasso of the center-right Creating Opportunities (CREO) party will contest a run-off presidential... Read More...
Latam February 4, 2021 ECUADOR: Heading towards high-wire election contest Ecuador, Politics Nicholas Watson Voter indecision and polling disparities inject considerable uncertainty into the outlook ahead of the 7 February first round of the presidential election. Although Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition appears to have momentum, the most likely... Read More...
Latam February 8, 2021 ECUADOR: Perez or Lasso – that is the question Ecuador, Politics Nicholas Watson With 97.85% of votes cast in the 7 February presidential election now counted, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition has won 32.16% of the vote. Yaku Perez of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation... Read More...
Latam January 7, 2021 ECUADOR: Facing a binary choice Ecuador, Politics Nicholas Watson With exactly a month to go before the first round of the presidential election, our base-case is that an April run-off will be necessary; this would pit the center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso against the leftist Andres Arauz.… <a href="https://speevr.com/2021/01/07/ecuador-facing-a-binary-choice/"... Read More...
