- The size of this weekend’s demonstration will strongly shape near-term narratives of the movement’s momentum.
- It could also affect how protesters approach the issue of reforms in Thailand’s monarchy.
- Thaksin’s Red Shirts could stay out of the spotlight, which helps limit the potential for a public confrontation.
Author: Bob Herrera-Lim
Finance Minister Predee Daochai resigned after 26 days in office. He cited health reasons, but the dominant speculation in Bangkok is that he found the ministry’s politics to be unmanageable. As reported by the Bangkok Post, Predee had earlier disagreed with his deputy, Santi Prompat, a politician from the leading People’s State Power Party (PPRP), over a ministerial reshuffle, and this was likely one of his many internal battles.… Read the rest
Protesters on Sunday held the largest anti-government gathering since the 2014 coup, with crowd estimates ranging from 10,000 – 15,000. The high turnout will likely encourage the movement, which now calls itself the Free People, to hold more demonstrations over the next few weeks to see how much momentum they can build, especially in terms of growing their numbers to a broader cross-section of Thai society.… Read the rest
Bob Herrera-Lim has advised firms not only with overall risk assessment at the regional and country level, but also developed and helped implement market entry, divestment and risk mitigation strategies.
Bob has been covering political and business risk in the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos since 2002, previously with Eurasia Group.… Read the rest
- Recent congressional investigations have revealed widespread corruption in the agency.
- However, its internal controls are weak and the increasing complexity of its operations make it difficult for external agencies such as the Commission on Audit to exercise effective oversight.
President Rodrigo Duterte re-imposed movement and business restrictions for the greater metropolitan Manila region from 4-18 August, following a plea Saturday from doctors’ organizations that the system could “not hold the line much longer.”… Read the rest
- President Rodrigo Duterte’s threat to cancel the licenses of the country’s two largest telecommunications companies will be more difficult to carry out than his denial of a broadcast license to ABS-CBN this June.
- President Rodrigo Duterte will supposedly present his “roadmap to recovery” on 27 July.
- However, he is unlikely to deviate from the limited stimulus being advocated by his economic team, or radically reshape his administration’s other healthcare policies.
- Remittances have dropped for a second straight month and a total of about 250,000 migrant workers are expected to have returned home in the next few months since the start of the pandemic, with possibly more awaiting repatriation.
Of the large Southeast Asian economies, the Philippines and Indonesia continue to grapple with the highest absolute number of new daily coronavirus diagnoses, and the trend is still unclear as to whether either country has reached a plateau.… Read the rest