SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt restructuring talk targets private creditors

While the G20 advocate for a recalibration of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s pandemic management support, reforms and more comprehensive solutions to debt problems remain a medium-term prospect. Yet in the hardest hit countries, pressure on private creditors to partake in debt restructuring negotiations will intensify in the short term. The restructuring case of Chad […]
SOUTH AFRICA: Who will be the biggest winner of the municipal elections?

The African National Congress (ANC) will likely be the biggest loser of the 1 November municipal elections, but its loss will not be the gain of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). Smaller parties, not only the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), will make inroads, signaling a more fragmented political picture and protracted coalition-making post-election. The […]
ZAMBIA: A string of positive news

President Hakainde Hichilema today, 27 September, announced the return of Denny Kalyalya as governor of the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) with immediate effect. The move puts the BoZ in a safe pair of hands and bodes particularly well for relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Fund will conduct a technical visit this week […]
SOUTH AFRICA: ANC improves candidate registration but election troubles remain

The African National Congress (ANC) appears to have largely closed its self-inflicted candidate registration gap this week, but the party’s electoral troubles do not end here. With just under six weeks to go to the 1 November municipal elections, several factors could conspire to push the ANC’s vote share below 50% overall and in key […]
ETHIOPIA: Piling on sanctions pressure

US President Joe Biden today, 17 September, signed an executive order authorizing sanctions on Ethiopia. In the first instance, the order is an attempt to force ceasefire negotiations in the 10-month-old Tigray conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s accompanying statement signaled the US’ willingness to delay the implementation of sanctions if the federal government […]
SOUTH AFRICA: Stumbling towards the 1 Nov local elections

While the Electoral Commission (IEC) should be able to pull off the organization of local elections now set for 1 November, the process threatens to be politically messy and legally contested. Unless the ruling African National Congress (ANC) manages to complete missing candidate registrations, it risks further decline in its overall vote share and in […]
Zambia: Hichilema’s honeymoon

Freshly inaugurated President Hakainde Hichilema is riding a wave of goodwill. Yet the reform process ahead will undoubtedly be politically painful and administratively challenging; it will be measured by the next budget, IMF talks and debt restructuring efforts. The new administration also needs to quickly address legacy issues in mining if it wants to improve […]
KENYA: Constitutional referendum dead, presidential succession less certain

On 20 August, the Court of Appeal upheld a high court ruling declaring several aspects of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) unconstitutional. The ruling represents another blow to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s plans to amend the constitution via a popular referendum, which appears dead in the water ahead of the 2022 […]
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: IMF SDRs – trickle-down or redistribution?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) remains inadequate vis-a-vis the region’s external financing needs. Yet, the debate on how rich countries can transfer SDRs to countries in greater need has been dragging on for months. Experience with multilateral pandemic crisis management to date suggests a sizeable redistribution of SDRs […]
ZAMBIA: Opposition landslide, daunting legacy

Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema has won the 12 August presidential election by a landslide, trouncing incumbent President Edgar Lungu by close to 1mn votes. Despite three days of tensions and suggestions that Lungu’s side might refuse to accept the results, a relatively smooth transition of power seems ultimately likely to ensue. While Hichilema inherits a […]