report January 14, 2021 ITALY: Confusion and posturing dominate while PM plays for time As expected, Matteo Renzi has withdrawn Italia Viva (IV)'s cabinet members from Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's government, bringing it toward the verge of collapse. Renzi's long telegraphed move triggered a political crisis, which could last days or even a... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 14, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 14, 2021 EUROPE/MACRO: Balancing the vaccines-lockdown-economics triangle While planning and logistical challenges might explain the variation in vaccination rates across Europe, it is too early to draw conclusions about these differences. A majority of the population still supports lockdowns, but compliance with restrictions and certain group...... By Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report January 14, 2021 NIGERIA: Covid-19 challenges abound Nigeria faces a second wave of Covid-19 infections, with a steady surge since December 2020. The government is hesitant to reintroduce restrictions on movement that proved hugely unpopular and were in fact widely ignored in spring last year. Meanwhile,... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report January 13, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The start of the vaccination campaign in the Czech Republic is slow and contentious, while progress in Polandis picking up after some initial controversies. In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration faces public protests over increased utility prices, while the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report January 13, 2021 MEXICO: A challenge to electoral governance ahead of June ballot This week has seen another instalment of the long-running feud between President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the National Electoral Institute (INE), which organizes federal elections and audits parties’ finances, and its head Lorenzo Cordova. On this occasion,... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 13, 2021 MALAYSIA: Schrodinger’s prime minister Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin may have already lost his parliamentary majority after two recent defections. However, with parliament unable to sit until 1 August (or until the current spike in new cases eases), there is no way to determine... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report January 13, 2021 JAPAN: Suga expands state of emergency as criticism within LDP grows Less than a week after announcing a state of emergency for Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures, on Wednesday, 13 January Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga extended the declaration to seven additional prefectures. Suga’s handling of the pandemic has been increasingly... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 12, 2021 JAPAN: Surging caseload suggests new state of emergency is only the beginning On Thursday, 7 January, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga officially declared a month-long state of emergency for Tokyo and its neighboring prefectures of Chiba, Saitama, and Kanagawa. The announcement came as the country set new records for case numbers nationwide... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 12, 2021 CHINA: Rules to counteract foreign sanctions are mostly symbolic New Commerce Ministry rules allow regulators to prohibit the application of foreign sanctions inside China. But Beijing will remain reluctant to scapegoat foreign business in retaliation for government action, given the desire to resist supply-chain decoupling. The r... ... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report January 12, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Implications of Kenya’s DSSI accession On 11 January, the Paris Club announced that Kenya would benefit from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) from 1 January to 30 June 2021. At the start of a crucial year in Kenya’s political cycle, the government’s U-turn... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report January 12, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is this year's first summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 12, 2021 ITALY: Simmering tensions come to boil A cabinet meeting widely seen as setting the stage for a showdown in Italy’s simmering government crisis will be held today (12 January) at 9.30pm local time. The meeting has been called by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte for the... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 12, 2021 GERMANY: The Merkel succession race is only about to begin Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) will vote for a new party leader at their digital convention on 16 January. However, this will not yet mark the decision about who will lead the Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) into the 26... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report January 11, 2021 VISEGRAD FOUR: Weakened by Covid-19, incumbents brace for difficult 2021 The approval ratings of the Visegrad Four governments have dropped to multi-year lows amid the continuing pandemic. While no political instability is expected in the near term, each government faces distinct challenges that could bring about changes in the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report January 11, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China appears to be pushing back against new US sanctions. Germany’s Christian Democrats will choose a new party leader. In Argentina, three major agricultural unions will start a three-day strike. Ghana’s Supreme Court will decide on a legal challenge to the presidential elect... Become... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 11, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Argentina faces a 72-hour agricultural strike following another arbitrary government intervention. Brazil’s Covid-19 situation will continue to put pressure on the government and legislators for more stimulus, which is unfeasible. In Mexico, independent state entities ... ... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 11, 2021 Argentina: Price Administration is the Name of the Game Minister Guzmán's orthodox turn in early December crashed with politics. Since Cristina Kirchner's speech in La Plata, many things have changed in the government's economic approach. Perhaps the most important is the arsenal of tools to fight inflation. Now... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel Zielonka, Rafael Aguilar Teneo
report January 11, 2021 JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA: Comfort women ruling drives new wedge in relationship The Japanese government swiftly rejected an 8 January ruling by the Seoul Central District Court that it must pay compensation to a group of surviving wartime sexual slaves known as “comfort women,” citing sovereign immunity and the terms of... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 11, 2021 INDONESIA: Vaccination program will have to overcome three hurdles The Sinovac vaccine has received the needed regulatory approvals, paving the way for the formal start of the vaccination program this week. The first vaccine supply will go to 2.6 million recipients. Although the initial distribution to provincial-level governments... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo