EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France - Daily cases have jumped to above 20,000 from 10,000 at the beginning of December. The government has put 25 of the country’s 101 departments under a 6pm-6am curfew. Bars and restaurants will remain closed until mid-February at least. - The government has adopted a draft decree to extend the state of health emergency until 1 June. Prime Minister Jean Castex could announce an extension of the nighttime curfew to the whole country today, 14 January. - Public health authorities have been slow to deploy their vaccination campaign, having delivered only 23.6% of the distributed doses. On the demand side, the percentage of people who declare they will take it has increased to 47%, up from 34% last month, according to a poll by ELABE. Spain - Daily Covid-19 cases have increased to more than 20,000 in the last 72 hours. The government continues to leave pandemic management in the hands of the regions, several of which are planning to introduce stricter restrictions. The recent snow blizzard in Madrid has put the region’s health system under further strain. - The regional health authorities have administered 52.7% of the more than 1,000,000 distributed vaccine doses. Still, the vaccination pace differs significantly among regions, with some of them having used less than 35% of their doses. - Concerns about the recent surge in cases are likely to lead to the delay of the 14 February Catalan regional elections, despite the lack of agreement between the different parties about a postponement. - The government, employers, and trade unions have reached an agreement to extend the furlough scheme until 31 January. The “layoffs ban” applying to firms using the furlough scheme will be maintained. Italy - The government has recently extended a state of emergency imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus until the end of April as infections currently show no sign of abating. A four-tier system that allows for different measures to be applied to different regions according to infection levels will be re-instated from 17 January. - Italy is reportedly the second most efficient country in the EU in terms of Covid-19 vaccination, with 885,000 (as of 14 January) doses administered, accounting for 63% of the total doses delivered so far. Still, across the regions the rate of inoculation currently varies from 86% (Campania) to 36% (Calabria). - Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is on the verge of collapsing after losing the support of Italia Viva, a junior partner in the ruling coalition. While there is no clear solution in sight to the political crisis, early elections remain very unlikely. Despite this development, the Covid-19 related legislation in the pipeline is expected to secure parliamentary approval. Germany - The seven-day rolling average of new infections is back above 25 cases per 100,000 inhabitants; this is still less than the Christmas peak north of 30, but more again than the relative low point of fewer than 20 cases in early January. - New measures came into force at the beginning of this week, including local authorities' ability to introduce travel restrictions for districts with more than 200 weekly new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. - Only fractions of the business support schemes worth EUR 15bn each for the lockdown months of November and December have yet been paid out; the slow administrative processes continue to lead to public criticism. United Kingdom - PM Boris Johnson has warned that it was too early to tell, but the numbers do seem to suggest that the UK may have begun to turn the corner again. The weekly average of new infections is down to 80 per 100,000 citizens, from almost 90 earlier in January. - However, the situation in hospitals appears to remain critical, thus badly requiring a continuation of the recently more encouraging trend on the new infections front; in the meantime, death numbers are rising further. - The government is signaling that the debate about fiscal consolidation will yet again be delayed; the chancellor is unlikely to discuss major tax hikes in his March budget amid the continued virus emergency. Greece - Since Christmas, the number of daily cases around the country has remained stable at about 650 a day, and there has been a gradual decline in the number of patients intubated. There are concerns about what will happen after the government allowed the Greek Church to openly violate health measures by holding Epiphany Day celebrations, which led to some crowding in churches. - Around 65,000 people have been vaccinated with the first dose since the country began vaccinations with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in late December. The government has come under fire for the slow start to the vaccination program, which put the country close to the bottom of the league in Europe in the initial days of its rollout. - The committee of experts advising the government over its Covid-19 strategy is expected to recommend, at its 15 January meeting, that the lockdown in place over the past two weeks to counter-balance a laxer approach over the festive season should be relaxed. Poland - Despite the much-improved epidemiological situation over the past two months, the government has extended all restrictions – including the closure of all non-essential services and in-person education (except for primary schools) – until the end of January. - However, domestic businesses are increasingly reluctant to comply with the closures citing the risk of mass bankruptcies. This resistance is putting pressure on the authorities to consider a partial easing of restrictions, potentially starting 1 February. - As of 14 January, Poland received 1.08mn doses of vaccines, and 369,000 residents were immunized (nearly 1% of the population). The authorities expect to receive 6.1mn vaccines (BioNTech-Pfizer and Moderna) in Q1 and vaccinate around 3mn residents (8% of total) by then. Recent polls show that vaccine skepticism in Poland is declining. Hungary - The seven-day rolling average of new infections per 1mn people decreased from a peak of 600 in early December to around 200 in mid-January. Nonetheless, the government has kept all restrictions in place at least until 1 February. - As of 14 January, 96.1K people were vaccinated (nearly 1% of the population), mostly doctors and care home residents. The government is blaming the European Commission for the slow procurement of vaccines (resulting in extended restrictions). - Despite the government’s statements about the potential use of Russian and Chinese vaccines to speed up the immunization campaign, their widespread use in Hungary unlikely due to public mistrust in these vaccines.

January 14, 2021

Europe

EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching

BY Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Wolfango Piccoli

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