Author: Alejandro Giacoia

Economics

Argentina: From Gloom to Doom

Editorial: From Gloom to Doom

The measures announced this week, aimed at containing the impacts of Covid’s second wave, come at a bad time, beyond the controversy with education or institutional issues regarding Buenos Aires autonomy. The last two treasury bond auctions failed.Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: Poverty, the Most Important Deficit

Editorial: Poverty, the Most Important Deficit

In line with expectations, The Statistics Agency announced that 42% of Argentines are below the poverty line. The data correspond to the second semester of last year and marked a rise of 1.5 points compared to the data of the first semester, which was when the quarantine had hit the most in informal employment, which in any case continues to be hardly hit.Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: Another Episode in The IMF Soap Opera

Editorial: Another Episode in The IMF Soap Opera

The International Monetary Fund’s soap opera with Argentina seems to have a lot of rating. The producers told the writers to keep adding characters and plots. It seems that there is no chance that it will end before December.Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: The Month at a Glance

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

• With an USD 1.9 trillion relief bill and full vaccination as early as June, the US is set for a stronger than expected recovery in 2021. International markets remain bullish, but inflation anxiety is on the rise even if actual inflation rates have not shown a sharp increase so far.… Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: Tax Policy Has Gone Bananas

Few things reflect a divergence from normal countries’ policy choices than the proposals to modify the Income tax that are in Congress. We have already discussed in this report about the regressiveness of the elimination of Income tax for workers with salaries of up to 150,000 pesos per month, mostly in the second-highest income decile, in addition to destroying the concept of marginal rates.… Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: The First Two Months in Black and White

Already in March we can make a preliminary balance of what the summer is leaving us. The best part came from the macroeconomic side. With the price of soybeans firm around USD 500 per ton and the prospects of USD 3.35 billion entering in SDRs from the IMF, literally fallen from the sky, the “exchange rate peace” continued and that took stress away from the rest of the economy, which tends to dance around the dollar.… Read the rest

Economics

Can Argentina End Up In Another Debt Restructuration?

Editorial: Can Argentina End Up In Another Debt Restructuration?

With Argentine bond yields approaching 20% a year, some begin to wonder if Argentina will have to restructure its debt again, despite the fact that the agreement with bondholders was closed just six months ago.Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: The Summer Ends Without Surprises

Contrary to what the turbulent Argentine history of summer crises could foretell, the summer is ending more calmly than expected. The exchange rate spreads fell, the dollar did not jump sharply and activity is on course for a recovery of around 7% in 2021.… Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: Never Ending Restrictions

Since November 2011, Argentina has lived with financial restrictions except for three and a half years, from the beginning of 2016 to September 2019. The perspective is that it will have many more years of exchange restrictions, at least during the entire government of Alberto Fernández.… Read the rest

Economics

Argentina: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

Special Analysis on the Provinces’ Fiscal and Debt Situation

We are happy to celebrate the 200 th edition of Econviews’ monthly report. Appropriately, our first edition in September 2003 centered on the ongoing debt restructuration, while our 100 th edition in October 2012 dealt with the chances of a technical default.… Read the rest