MEXICO: A challenge to electoral governance ahead of June ballot

This week has seen another instalment of the long-running feud between President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the National Electoral Institute (INE), which organizes federal elections and audits parties’ finances, and its head Lorenzo Cordova. On this occasion, with under five months to go until the June “mega-elections”, which involve the lower house mid-term vote, 15 state gubernatorial elections, and a host of state assembly and municipal ballots, the consequences are potentially more serious than on previous occasions that the two have crossed swords. The latest clash was prompted by Cordova’s observation on 11 January that – as per the law – AMLO’s morning press conferences should not be broadcast in their entirety in the two months leading up to the 6 June ballot since they constitute a platform to promote the government. In yesterday’s press conference, AMLO berated Cordova, accusing him of censorship and of turning a blind eye to past electoral fraud. Previous flashpoints and controversies have centered on a bid by the governing National Regeneration Movement (Morena) to shorten Cordova’s term, the selection process for the INE board, and on significant budget cuts suffered by the INE. The main reason for AMLO’s pugnacious response is because his morning press conferences are highly effective and he does not want to see them curtailed. AMLO uses the lengthy conferences to set and dominate the news agenda, distract from bad news and a general lack of results, and maintain the direct connection with “the people” that his style of leadership hinges on. The press conferences are one of the key pillars supporting AMLO’s remarkably resilient approval ratings, and they will be a crucial campaign tool for Morena, which will be heavily reliant on AMLO’s own personal popularity for success. Picking a fight with the INE and Cordova serves other, related purposes. It helps to reinforce AMLO’s rhetoric about turning the page on the corrupt “neo-liberal” past, which – in AMLO’s eyes – Cordova embodies. This keeps polarization alive, while enabling AMLO to continue with the classic populist trope that he is an outsider even though he is now in government and is attempting to turn Morena into a hegemonic political force. Discrediting the INE now also prepares the ground for possible defeat or disappointment in June, while sewing the seeds for the next big electoral battle – the 2022 presidential recall referendum. The INE’s independence is not at immediate risk, and an overt intervention in the entity is not in prospect. However, the situation raises uncomfortable questions about what would happen if any of June’s results are contested. In the medium- to longer-term, there is a risk to electoral standards alongside the possible erosion of public confidence in election integrity. Nor is the INE the only autonomous state entity currently under threat; AMLO has recently singled out the IFT telecoms regulator and the INAI National Institute for Transparency for possible absorption into existing ministries as he looks to eliminate checks on his presidency.

January 13, 2021

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MEXICO: A challenge to electoral governance ahead of June ballot

BY Nicholas Watson

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January 13, 2021

Latam

MEXICO: A challenge to electoral governance ahead of June ballot

BY Nicholas Watson

Report Contents

Registration

More by Nicholas Watson

COLOMBIA: Tax reform detonates major political crisis

LATAM PULSE

CHILE: Another populist lurch as government beaten on third pension withdrawal

LATAM PULSE

PERU: The lowdown on hard-left outsider vying for the presidency

ARGENTINA: Clash over schooling sets up protracted electoral confrontation

LATAM PULSE

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PERU: Heading towards an antagonistic campaign and a polarizing run-off