report September 30, 2021 ASIA: What the Quad’s evolution means for Asia The evolution of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue into new areas of cooperation at this week's summit has important implications for the delicate balance of political and economic relations across Asia. For Japan, the Quad represents an important component in a gradual tilt towards an economic security posture. India has little interest in a military pact or continental containment strategy... By Aditi Phadnis, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo Teneo
report September 30, 2021 TURKEY: Parliament set for a busy Q4 as Erdogan looks ahead to next elections A reform of the electoral system, a draconian social media law and the 2022 budget will be the main priorities for Turkey's parliament after its summer recess. While noise about a new constitution is likely to re-emerge in the weeks ahead, the prospects for a new charter to be approved in 2022 are very limited given the existing parliamentary... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 30, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United Kingdom – The seven-day average of new infections has risen back above the mark of 30,000 cases over the last... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 30, 2021 PHILIPPINES: The circus is coming to town Sara Duterte is still the nominal front-runner for the presidency, although she disavows any intent to seek the office. Her recent ratings decline may be a cause of worry for her campaign and force her to disclose her real intent sooner. Manila mayor Francisco Domagoso is the other serious contender; he is in a dead heat with Sara in... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 30, 2021 JAPAN: Next PM Kishida set to tweak but continue with the Abe/Suga framework Fumio Kishida has won the LDP leadership race, leveraging Diet members' support to edge out grassroots favorite Taro Kono in both rounds of the vote. Known as a moderate but mutable right-winger, Kishida is set to govern with a slightly'kinder' variant of Abenomics and a continued commitment to digital transformation and climate change policies. On foreign policy, he has... By James Brady Teneo
report September 30, 2021 PERU: Contradictions and confusion Prime Minister Guido Bellido's threat to nationalize the consortium that operates the Camisea natural gas field unless it agrees to pay higher taxes is unsettling – though not for what might seem the most obvious reasons. Camisea is a consortium whose members include Pluspetrol (Argentina), Hunt Oil (US), and Repsol (Spain), among others. Some form of contract renegotiation for... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 30, 2021 FRANCE: The right fights, Macron benefits? The members of the center-right party The Republicans (LR) agreed on 25 September that their presidential candidate would be elected in an internal ballot on 4 December. While the decision could help the candidacy of former Labor Minister Xavier Bertrand, the race to decide the contender is far from settled. Meanwhile, the rise of far-right polemist Eric Zemmour could... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report September 30, 2021 RUSSIA/EUROPE: Gas exports curbed by commercial and geopolitical considerations Record-high natural gas prices and fears of looming shortages in Europe are raising questions about Russia's reluctance to increase its gas shipments. However, Gazprom's strategy is consistent with the company's established preference for long-term supply contracts over spot supplies of natural gas. Russia is also taking advantage of Europe's gas crisis to speed up the regulatory approval of the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 30, 2021 GUINEA: Miners’ ‘selective review’ risks persist amid transition charter On 27 September, the junta led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya issued a ‘transition charter' outlining the guiding principles, institutions, and mechanisms governing the transition phase, which remains without an official end date. Unsurprisingly, the charter confirms the junta's central role in the process and installs Doumbouya as president with far-reaching powers. While the charter's short-term focus is on maintaining... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 30, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE This week, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal (TK) will continue examining whether the national law takes precedence over EU law. In Romania, Prime Minister Florin Citu will likely struggle to survive a no-confidence motion scheduled for 5 October. The US annual defense bill for 2022 adopted by the House of Representatives entails new sanctions on Russia. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate renewed... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 29, 2021 US/CANADA/CHINA: Meng Wanzhou release can’t undo 3 years of built-up hostility In what amounted to a hostage swap, Canada released Huawei's Meng Wanzhou from house arrest, and Chinese authorities deported two Canadian expatriates jailed for espionage. Despite the resolution, the net effect of the three-year ordeal has been to harden hearts and stoke nationalism on all sides; this hostility will remain an obstacle to improved relations. Beijing sees the outcome... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 28, 2021 IRAN: Iran takes a hard line at the UN The odds of a breakdown in nuclear negotiations with Iran have increased considerably. Iranian government statements in New York last week stressed Iran's efforts to de-emphasize the nuclear talks and “diversify” its global diplomatic agenda. At the UN General Assembly meetings in New York last week, Iranian officials sought to stress their lack of urgency to resolve enduring disputes... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report September 28, 2021 GERMANY: The fault lines to overcome for a traffic light coalition Following the 26 September Bundestag elections, a so-called traffic light coalition led by Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats (SPD) is, for now, the most likely outcome. However, if talks between the Greens and the center-right Liberals (FDP) were to fail, a grand coalition with Armin Laschet's Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) remains a possibility, despite the current turmoil after Angela... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 28, 2021 UK: Reasons, prospects, and implications of the fuel crisis The UK has experienced an extraordinary petrol crisis in recent days, initially caused by a shortage of Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) drivers. None of the government's measures are guaranteed to bring in enough drivers in the next week or two, although some may help in the next month or two. Looking ahead, the government's previous view that no sectors... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 28, 2021 ECUADOR: Unstoppable force (Lasso) meets immovable object (National Assembly) President Guillermo Lasso's so-called “mega-bill” of reforms faces a complex path in the National Assembly (AN). The government has been talking openly about its “plan B” for a public referendum if/when the reforms reach a dead end in the legislature. Lasso's popularity could see him through any referendum but sustaining his political momentum beyond would become increasingly difficult. President... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 28, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. ... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 27, 2021 ZAMBIA: A string of positive news President Hakainde Hichilema today, 27 September, announced the return of Denny Kalyalya as governor of the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) with immediate effect. The move puts the BoZ in a safe pair of hands and bodes particularly well for relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Fund will conduct a technical visit this week ahead of a planned... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 27, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Peru‘s government is in another muddle of its own making – this time over a threat to nationalize natural gas resources – while Congress will keep the Pedro Castillo administration on the backfoot. In Mexico, energy policy in the downstream sector returns to the political spotlight, while monetary policy will be under renewed focus. Brazil is gearing... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 27, 2021 SOUTH KOREA: Front-runners emerge in party primaries ahead of presidential race With the presidential primary season underway, Gyeonggi province governor Lee Jae-myung leads former prime minister Lee Nak-yeon in the race to be the ruling Democratic Party (DP)'s candidate. For the opposition People Power Party (PPP), former prosecutor-general Yoon Seok-youl leads National Assembly member Hong Jun-pyo, who was runner-up in the 2017 presidential race to Moon Jae-in. The DP's nominee... By James Brady, Teneo, Victor Cha Teneo
report September 27, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Exploratory talks about a “traffic light” coalition are likely ahead in Germany. Huawei's chief financial officer has returned to Canada. Meanwhile, Japan's ruling party will hold its leadership election, Turkey's parliament will return from its summer recess, Brazil's president has tested negative for Covid-19, and South Africa's ruling party will launch its manifesto. WHAT TO WATCH Germany Yesterday's Bundestag... By Teneo Macro Teneo
