report January 7, 2021 GHANA: Hung parliament will necessitate compromise On 7 January, President-elect Nana Akufo-Addo will officially commence his second term in office following the inauguration of the new parliament the same day. The ruling New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) wafer-thin majority will be put to a first test... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report January 7, 2021 ECUADOR: Facing a binary choice With exactly a month to go before the first round of the presidential election, our base-case is that an April run-off will be necessary; this would pit the center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso against the leftist Andres Arauz. The uniting... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 7, 2021 UK/EU: New year, new deadlines, new (slow-moving) drama As anticipated, both sides agreed on a zero tariffs/quota trade deal just in time for Christmas. But the limited nature of the deal leaves many questions unanswered, chief among them the outlook for the (financial) services sector. Respective talks... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report January 7, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: WHO issues rare criticism of Beijing for... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 7, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Worsening Covid-19 wave, slow vaccine action President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration has come under heavy criticism this week for its lack of a convincing Covid-19 vaccination strategy. While the government hopes to begin vaccinating healthcare workers by February, vaccine supplies lined up to date only cover... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report January 6, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The Czech government is struggling to cope with the resurgent pandemic and criticism over slow vaccination progress. In Latvia, Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins has requested the resignation of the heath minister over shortcomings in the vaccination plan. Poland’s vaccination... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report January 5, 2021 MIDDLE EAST: Neighbors mend fences with Qatar Qatar signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the other Gulf Cooperation Council states to mend a 3 and half year old rift. This agreement is more of a ceasefire than a peace agreement, and... By Jon B. Alterman, Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 5, 2021 TURKEY: Covid-19 vaccination program likely to fall short of its targets The government’s planned Covid-19 vaccination program appears set to fall short of its targets and potentially add to the damage that its often confused response to the pandemic has already caused to its credibility. On the logistical front, it... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 5, 2021 MEXICO: Early steps on vaccination belie challenges to come The government is touting its achievement as the first Latin American country to begin vaccinating its population against Covid-19; the first vaccinations of frontline medical personnel started on 24 December using the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The government has also signed... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 5, 2021 CHINA/EUROPE: Investment pact is economic win for EU, political win for Beijing Following seven years of negotiation, Beijing and Brussels concluded negotiations on an EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) on 30 December. Beijing's willingness to accept a relatively one-sided deal reflects China’s concern to avoid international isolation ... Become... By Carsten Nickel, Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report January 4, 2021 MOZAMBIQUE: Dramatic escalation of security threat to LNG ventures Total evacuated most of its personnel from Palma and the Afungi peninsula last week, ahead of insurgent attacks on the doorstep of its LNG site on 1 January. Total’s unprecedented measure and extensive insurgency-related disruption to transport along mainland... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report January 4, 2021 JAPAN: Suga on the defensive as government prepares new state of emergency Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga held his first press conference of the year on Monday, 4 January, in which he indicated that his government is considering declaring a state of emergency as early as Thursday, 7 January. Suga’s handling of... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 4, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Ecuador holds the first round of its presidential election. Brazil holds a crucial lower house leadership vote, while there is expectation over possible vaccine moves. Mexico’s Congress starts the final session before the June mid-term elections, while... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 4, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China has approved Sinopharm’s Covid-19 vaccine for general use. The new border arrangement between the UK and the EU will be tested after the holiday season. Ghana’s president will officially start his second term. In Italy, tensions within the... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 4, 2021 INDIA: An uptick in the economy and Indian vaccines eclipsed by farmer protests Farmer protests, which laid siege to New Delhi in early December and grow by the day, could not have come at a worse time for the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. Everything was heading in the right... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report December 29, 2020 SOUTH AFRICA: Reluctant return to lockdown as Covid-19 infections surge On 28 December, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a return from ‘Level 1’ to ‘Level 3’ lockdown restrictions, which will apply until 15 January. While the government has been extremely reluctant to return to tighter measures in the face of extreme economic... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report December 23, 2020 THAILAND: A test for the country’s contact-tracing and testing system An outbreak that apparently started sometime over the last two weeks with migrant workers in a province southeast of Bangkok is threatening to spread to the rest of the country, and causing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to warn of... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report December 23, 2020 UK/EU: Deal or delay? Speculation has been growing that a post-Brexit trade deal will be announced before or on 24 December. In true Brexit fashion, however, earlier expectations for an imminent presentation of a deal turned out to have been too optimistic. As... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report December 22, 2020 INDONESIA: Common ties, experience are key features of new cabinet appointments President Joko Widodo today replaced six cabinet ministers, two of whom had been accused of corruption. Although maintaining party representation in the cabinet also often drives cabinet reshuffles, it did not seem to play as much a part in... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report December 22, 2020 JAPAN: New budget shows deficit spending will continue as pandemic recedes The Suga cabinet approved its draft FY2021 budget on Monday, 21 December, which for the third-straight year topped JPY 100tn (USD 966.6bn), climbing to a record high of roughly JPY 106tn (USD 1.02tn). While the top priority is providing... By Tobias Harris Teneo