ASIA: Weekly politics update

Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: WHO issues rare criticism of Beijing for blocking virus researchers The World Health Organization (WHO) criticized China for refusing visas to WHO researchers investigating the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on 5 January that he was "very disappointed" that researchers departed for Beijing on 4-5 January, before Chinese officials informed the agency the researchers would not be allowed to enter. The WHO rarely criticizes member states directly. China's foreign ministry said that "to ensure that the international team’s work progresses smoothly, they must go through the necessary procedures," adding that "there is no need to read too much into" the delay. Still, Beijing's apparent blocking of WHO researchers will fuel suspicions that the government is attempting to conceal the origin of the outbreak in China. The US government has previously criticized Tedros for praising China's virus control efforts and cooperation with the WHO. Chinese officials continue to suggest that China might not be the original source of the virus. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on 3 January that "more and more research suggests that the pandemic was likely to have been caused by separate outbreaks in multiple places in the world." Both Chinese and international scientists increasingly doubt that a livestock market in Wuhan – where Chinese authorities first identified the initial outbreak – was the original source of the virus, but most foreign scientists still believe it originated somewhere in southern China. The Chinese government is sponsoring large amounts of research into the issue, but authorities are strictly controlling the flow of potentially sensitive information. Scientists must obtain approval from a cabinet-level task force before publishing data or research. In one case, the government reportedly confiscated samples that a bat research team collected in southwest China's Yunnan province. SOUTH KOREA: Government faces small business frustrations as social distancing continues South Korean authorities have eased some social distancing measures, after new Covid-19 cases fell below 1,000 for three straight days. Small business owners, particularly gyms and other indoor athletic facilities, have complained about the impact of weeks of stricter measures. The greater Seoul region remains at level 2.5, the second-highest level, and the rest of the country is at level 2 through 17 January. Beginning on 8 January, however, the government will permit indoor sporting facilities to hold classes with nine or fewer people. The government is also under pressure from small businesses in the dining and entertainment industry to either relax guidelines or provide more compensation. As a result, it may be difficult for authorities to extend stricter social distancing when they expire. The discontent also increases the likelihood that the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) will move quickly to pass another stimulus package to contain the political impact of social distancing. The Finance Ministry has indicated that it will work to distribute the KRW 9.3tn (USD 8.6bn) budgeted for small business relief in last year’s third stimulus package by early February. Nevertheless, medical authorities are also concerned about the new, more contagious strain of Covid-19 and will now require foreign entrants not only to show a negative test result from within 72 hours of arrival, but also to undergo additional testing during the mandatory two-week quarantine period. The government has confirmed at least 15 cases of the new strain thus far. PHILIPPINES: Duterte’s congressional allies suggest constitutional change (again) Congressional allies of President Rodrigo Duterte, including the speaker of the House of Representatives and the former chief of the national police, now a senator, are proposing that Congress restart the process of amending the 1987 constitution. The chairman of the House committee on constitutional amendments has said that the focus of discussions will be on easing the economic restrictions in the charter to support the country's economic recovery. But two senators who filed counterpart bills in the Senate said they also want to change the provisions on "democratic representation," which is couched language for possible changes to term limits. Since the two senators are not hitting term limit restrictions yet, the suspicion is that they want to loosen term limits on the presidency, which is a single, six-year term. This effort will be difficult. Several senators have presidential or vice-presidential aspirations for 2022 and will attempt to block the measure. However, Duterte's high approval ratings and the absence of an effective opposition may encourage his supporters to move forward with their plans. But public support may not be the only hurdle. Duterte's influential economic team, including the secretary of finance, opposes changing the constitution, given that one possible outcome is a shift to a more federalized governing structure. This change could compromise economic policy, given the weak capacities of local governments. Whether the push to amend the constitution can succeed will become evident in the next few months. The effort is unlikely to extend beyond the middle of 2021, when political attention will inevitably shift to the 2022 general elections.

January 7, 2021

Asia

ASIA: Weekly politics update

BY Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris

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