report February 3, 2021 EUROPE: Behind the EU’s procurement disaster, the old rollout risks loom The EU’s failed vaccine procurement efforts, followed by the chaotic handling of its fallout, mark a turn of the tide in the ongoing comparison with the post-Brexit UK.However, there is no consensus among health experts what the UK strategy... By Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report February 3, 2021 MOZAMBIQUE: Debt court case backfires against president While accountability in Mozambique’s infamous USD 2bn debt scandals has been elusive for years, for the first time President Filipe Nyusi has been directly linked to the scandals in an ongoing court case in London. Even if the legal... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report February 3, 2021 NIGERIA: Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) about to enter crucial stage Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) about to enter crucial stage During last week’s public hearings, industry stakeholders voiced various concerns regarding the bill’s investment provisions. Representatives of the oil-producing Niger Delta region meanwhile advocated for a larger revenu... Become... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report February 3, 2021 MEXICO: Confrontation brewing over rehabilitation of state utility’s monopoly Proposed changes to the 2013 Electricity Industry Law (LIE) represent another lurch towards energy nationalism. A bill sent to the lower house of Congress on 1 February proposes altering grid dispatch rules to benefit the state-run CFE electricity utility;... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 3, 2021 ITALY: Draghi faces an uphill battle to secure a parliamentary majority President Sergio Mattarella’s unexpected and sudden decision to summon former ECB chief Mario Draghi for talks today (3 February) has shaken the country’s political parties and thrown some of them in a difficult spot. Mattarella tasked Draghi to form... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report February 2, 2021 JAPAN: Suga still politically vulnerable as state of emergency extended On Tuesday, 2 February, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced that he would extend the state of emergency scheduled to end on 7 February by one month, to 7 March. Although case numbers have fallen since the state of emergency... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 2, 2021 INDIA: A growth budget in a pandemic year For the first time since the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came to power in 2014, the government has presented a budget that has drawn praise from all sections of stakeholders across India’s diverse political economy, barring opposition... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report February 2, 2021 ITALY: Mediator struggling President Sergio Mattarella will meet the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Roberto Fico, this evening (2 February). Recall that last week, Fico was tasked by Mattarella to lead the efforts to find a compromise between the parties that... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report February 2, 2021 FRANCE: Macron’s risky bet Prime Minister Jean Castex announced on 29 January that the government would not impose the widely expected third nationwide lockdown to limit the spread of Covid-19 infections. President Emmanuel Macron's last-minute U-turn, which goes against his scientific advisors' opinion,... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report February 2, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: First vaccine progress as second wave eases Late on 1 February, on the day when the first 1mn Covid-19 vaccines had arrived in the country, President Cyril Ramaphosa was able to deliver somewhat better news around the vaccine rollout. Around 40mn-50mn vaccine doses now seem to... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report February 2, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is this year's first summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 1, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The political effects of the coup in Myanmar will be damaging. The Commission’s chaotic attempt to weaponize the Northern Ireland protocol has badly undermined the EU’s political credibility. A Chinese cell phone manufacturer filed a complaint in a US... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 1, 2021 MYANMAR: A decade comes undone The state of emergency will last one year but what the military hopes to achieve in that period is unclear. The military may avoid interfering with economic policies and investments to temper the negative effects of the takeover, but... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 1, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Eurobond Political Risk Monitor Our Eurobond Political Risk Monitor, presented in the attached table, provides a go-to guide of the main political and policy issues in 17 sub-Saharan African (SSA) sovereigns that have issued Eurobonds as of January 2021. In this edition, our... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report February 1, 2021 CHINA: Digital privacy law is a bid for global lead in internet governance China's legislature released the draft of a new Personal Information Privacy Law (PIPL) for public comment in October and may approve a final version this year. Once enacted, the law will impose substantial new compliance requirements on both Chinese... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report January 29, 2021 BRAZIL: House Speaker vote crucial but Bolsonaro’s future is in his own hands Two candidacies for house speaker reveal realignments among centrist forces but candidates agree on legislative priorities. Not even a pro-government candidate could stop an impeachment if political conditions so warrant it. Support for the Jair Bolsonaro administration will not...... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report January 29, 2021 ITALY: Crisis set to fester for a bit longer While today (29 January) marks the third and final day of the formal consultations held by President Sergio Mattarella with party delegations, a solution to the government crisis is still not in sight. In the most likely scenario, a... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 29, 2021 ETHIOPIA: Bondholders might be collateral, not target, of restructuring bid State Minister of Finance Eyob Tekalign has signaled that Ethiopia will try to restructure its external debt under the G20’s ‘Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)’. Without a formal notification of creditors, the... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report January 29, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Uncertainty over deliveries of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine to the EU poses risks to Bulgaria’s vaccination campaign, which already lags behind EU peers. In Poland, protests are reemerging over a tightened abortion law. Meanwhile, Russia is starting to lift Covid-19... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report January 28, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo