report July 9, 2021 EU: Strategy review unlikely to halt the politicization of central banking The European Central Bank (ECB) has concluded its strategy review, but the political debate around monetary policy is likely to remain elevated, rather than settling swiftly. The updated inflation target reflects additional commitment to maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy am...... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report July 9, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report July 8, 2021 CHINA: Didi investigation signals concern over data security, foreign listings China's internet regulator announced an investigation into ride-hailing group Didi Global, citing illegal collection and use of personal data. The State Council, China's cabinet, also called for new rules to tighten regulation of foreign listings by Chinese companies, just... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report July 8, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report July 8, 2021 BULGARIA: ITN to lead coalition government after Sunday’s snap election Although the early general election on 11 July will see a close race between the center right Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) and the populist newcomer There Are Such People (ITN) party, the latter holds best... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report July 7, 2021 CHILE: Spotlight on the radical left Presidential primary voting is scheduled for 18 July. Two blocs representing the center-right Chile Vamos (CV) coalition and the more radical left Apruebo Dignidad coalition are participating. The center-left bloc now going under the name of Unidad Constituyente is... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report July 7, 2021 MALAYSIA: Parliament reconvenes 26 July, but watch UMNO The most important near-term factor in Malaysian politics is UMNO's willingness to cut ties with the majority. Public health conditions make it difficult to hold an election before Q4, which may cause UMNO to hesitate to pull the trigger.... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report July 7, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Beyond Zuma, Ramaphosa has a KZN problem Ex-president Jacob Zuma topped the agenda at the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) on 5 July. Zuma has lodged a last-minute appeal against a 15-month prison sentence for failing to appear before the Zondo commission on state capture. The... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 7, 2021 UK: As England reopens, party politics remains in flux The government is betting on the full reopening of England on 19 July, but it remains unclear what level of health system stress will be politically acceptable in winter. The new health secretary could boost fiscal conservatism in the... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report July 6, 2021 KOREAN PENINSULA: North Korea admits to Covid-19 transmission in country North Korean leader's statements at Politburo meeting last week are the first public admittance of the Covid-19 virus inside of the country. The regime does not have a public health system to contain the virus and large numbers of... By Victor Cha Teneo
report July 6, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Chile's constituent assembly has got off to an inauspicious start. Brazil's vaccine procurement probes will continue. It is one month since Peru's presidential run-off vote with no official winner, though the leftist Pedro Castillo has already announced... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report July 6, 2021 NIGERIA: Southern governors draw lines in the sand on PIB, presidency Even though both houses of the National Assembly passed the notorious Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) last week, there is a potentially protracted period of suspense in the offing before a harmonized version emerges for President Muhammadu Buhari to sign.... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report July 6, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China's regulator has announced investigations into major online platforms. Ethiopia's prime minister faces multiple challenges. Meanwhile, India's cabinet will be reshuffled, snap elections will be held in Bulgaria, Chile's constituent assembly experienced a chaotic first sessio... Become a... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report July 6, 2021 ETHIOPIA: Tigray’s turning point Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may try to turn its military defeat in Tigray into a foreign relations advantage. The endgame in the conflict remains uncertain and bears risks for Ethiopia's internal stability and even foreign disputes. While the onus... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 2, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Duterte looks first to his succession plans, not legacy At a press conference yesterday, President Rodrigo Duterte said he should be considered as a candidate for the vice-presidency in 2022. The statement is likely a bluff to create political noise that keeps him relevant through the next few... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report July 1, 2021 ITALY: M5S turmoil unlikely to affect government stability The co-ruling Five Star Movement (M5S) plunged, once again, into deep turmoil and is now at risk of a split after a public row between its founder, former comedian Beppe Grillo, and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who had... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report July 1, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Romania's government comfortably survived a motion of no confidence, but slow vaccination and rivalries within the ruling National Liberal Party are pertinent risks going forward. Russia is continuing its efforts to mitigate surging prices of food and various commodities... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report July 1, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report July 1, 2021 CHILE: Path to a new constitution unlikely to be straightforward The constituent assembly specially elected to draft a new constitution officially opens on 4 July. Chile has an opportunity to build a more inclusive growth model and settle the political disaffection that exploded into major unrest in late-2019. However,... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report July 1, 2021 CHINA: Party’s 100th anniversary aims to boost legitimacy, contrast with US The Chinese Communist Party marked its 100th anniversary on 1 July; propaganda authorities are using the event to boost the party's legitimacy. The anniversary celebrations feature familiar messages about the party's achievements but also highlight howthe party is actively... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
