report May 13, 2021 MEXICO: Rattled AMLO intensifies electoral attacks With just three and a half weeks to go before the 6 June “mega-elections,” which involve the lower house mid-term vote, 15 state gubernatorial elections, and a host of state assembly and municipal ballots, the campaign is heating up.... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report May 13, 2021 FRANCE: Betting on the post-pandemic bonanza As the vaccination campaign progresses – around one-quarter of the population has received at least one dose of the jab – President Emmanuel Macron looks determined to leave Covid-19 restrictions behind. Macron seems to be betting that the expected... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report May 12, 2021 CZECH REPUBLIC: ANO’s decline continues ahead of October elections The ruling Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) is continuing to lose voter support ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 8-9 October. New spending initiatives could mitigate a decline in ANO’s popularity but are unlikely to reverse the negative... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report May 12, 2021 CHINA: Census shows growing population, but demographic challenge is severe The results of China's 2020 census challenge a media report last month claiming that China's population shrunk last year for the first time since the 1960s. But the figures illustrate challenges with demographic aging and regional economic disparities; the... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report May 12, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 12, 2021 UK: Scottish independence keeps simmering, English realignment continues Despite the SNP's win in Scotland, a second independence referendum is not likely before the next UK general election, which might now be held around 2023. Now essentially a different party from the Conservatives who returned to power over... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report May 12, 2021 NIGERIA: Armed secessionists may target the Niger Delta, but obstacles remain Over the weekend, 12 police officers were killed in a string of attacks targeting police stations in Akwa Ibom and Rivers states. If it can be substantiated that these attacks were indeed perpetrated by the Eastern Security Network (ESN),... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report May 11, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 10, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Pandemic update Official infection rates across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remain relatively low but concerns about an “India scenario” are growing amid a proliferation of variants. The region is quickly falling further behind in the global vaccine race, with only about 1%... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report May 10, 2021 INDONESIA: Finance wants to raise the VAT rate but will face stiff opposition The government will discuss with parliament a possible increase in the current VAT rate of 10%, according to a presentation last week by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, although she did not specify what the target rate would be.... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report May 10, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China’s Sinopharm has been approved by the WHO for emergency use. Chile will face several elections this week, including a constituent assembly election. Italy’s government will approve a new stimulus package Meanwhile, China’s Sichuan Airlines will restart operations to... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 10, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Colombia will see talks to try to defuse tensions and calm protests that arose out of the government’s aborted tax reform. Chile’s postponed mega-vote – including elections for a constituent assembly – takes place. Brazil’s Covid-19 inquiry... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report May 7, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: An important month ahead for the continental countries Several continental Southeast Asian countries are dealing with an increase in Covid-19 cases and increased public apprehension of variants and potentially strained health care systems. Recognizing the economic cost of broad lockdowns, most of these governments are attempting tar...... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report May 6, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report May 6, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Against the backdrop of a swiftly improving epidemiological situation, countries across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are easing Covid-19 restrictions. Bulgaria is heading to snap parliamentary elections in July, while a referendum on dissolving parliament and holding an early... Become... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report May 6, 2021 GERMANY: The greening of federal politics continues Last week’s constitutional court ruling on Germany’s climate law has not remained without consequences. The Karlsruhe judges decreed that, in its current form, the law violates the freedoms of future generations in that it postpones the most drastic climate... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report May 5, 2021 COLOMBIA: Tax reform detonates major political crisis The tax reform that President Ivan Duque withdrew on 3 May has succeeded in reigniting the 2019 protest movement. The difference now is that economic conditions have deteriorated drastically, while wide-ranging public grievances run even deeper than before. This... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report May 5, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Labor battles about to get serious Public-sector wage negotiations will test Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s ability to hold the line on his ZAR 300bn savings pledge. At state-owned power utility Eskom, management has rebuffed labor’s opening demands for double-digit wage increases. A public-sector strike looks... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report May 4, 2021 CHINA: Politburo sees window of opportunity for painful reforms The Communist Party's top decision-making body, the 25-person Politburo, held its quarterly meeting on economy policy on 30 April. Significant shifts in economic policy generally require a decision by the Politburo, so these quarterly meetings are worth watching. While... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report May 4, 2021 GREECE: Seeking a return to normality Greece opened its food service sector on 3 May and is gearing up to officially welcome tourists to the country from 14 May. Having submitted its Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) plan to Brussels, the government is now turning... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
