report December 21, 2020 CHINA: “Demand-side reform” seeks income re-distribution to promote consumption The Central Economic Work Conference signaled a new focus on pro-consumption policies to reduce the imbalance between excess supply and inadequate demand that has emerged in China's economy following the pandemic. "Demand side reform" aims to promote consumption through... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report December 21, 2020 JAPAN: Suga puts political needs first in new missile defense plan The Suga cabinet approved a new missile defense plan on Friday, 18 December, replacing the previous plan suspended earlier this year to deploy an Aegis Ashore missile defense system purchased from the US. The new plan highlights the cross-cutting... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 18, 2020 ZAMBIA: Plan spells headline risk for miners, no clear upside for IMF deal On 17 December, President Edgar Lungu launched Zambia’s new Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) 2020-2023. If Lungu’s ERP was meant to please the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the immediate effect was to generate headline risk as Lungu signaled his intention... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report December 18, 2020 BRAZIL: Crucial House election will be late nail-biter and hold agenda hostage There will be no vote on reforms or fiscal measures until after the February elections for congressional presiding officers. The vote in the House politically pits President Jair Bolsonaro against Speaker Rodrigo Maia. One of two centrist candidates will... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report December 18, 2020 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The risk of government instability is rising in the Czech Republic and Slovenia. In Romania, three center-right parties are struggling to reach an agreement on forming a new coalition government, but an eventual compromise is expected. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s new government is s... Become a... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report December 18, 2020 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA/AUSTRALIA/US: Canberra's WTO challenge to Chinese tariffs creates... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 17, 2020 VIETNAM: After dong-manipulation finding, what comes next? The US Treasury Wednesday labeled Vietnam a currency manipulator along with Switzerland, after both countries met its three criteria for the designation. Hanoi claimed Thursday morning its currency policies only promote macroeconomic stability and are not meant to provide... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report December 17, 2020 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report December 16, 2020 MEXICO: Flaws in Covid-19 strategy persist amid slow vaccination outlook Health authorities and various political figures have been making calls for people to stay at home where possible, while avoiding Christmas parties and family gatherings. The appeal comes amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and a sustained increase in... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 16, 2020 SOUTH AFRICA: Treasury wins first public-sector wage battle On 15 December, the Labour Appeal Court rejected an application by public-sector unions to force the government to implement their 2020 wage increases, the third and final year of a 2018 wage deal. A seeming surprise to both sides,... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report December 16, 2020 ITALY: A staged crisis while Covid-19 and policy paralysis dominate Though formally undeclared, a managed political crisis has unofficially started. The likely outcome will be a new program and priorities for the executive supported by all parties in the current ruling coalition and a limited cabinet reshuffle. Following the... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report December 16, 2020 POLAND/HUNGARY: Compromise agreement only postpones rule of law battles with EU The proposed rule of law mechanism in the EU remains ambiguous and will likely be postponed due to legal battles, which suits Budapest and Warsaw. The threat of financial sanctions could force Poland and Hungary to alter their policies... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report December 15, 2020 FRANCE: Three topics to watch in 2021 The Covid-19 pandemic will continue to dominate the agenda of President Emmanuel Macron's administration during the first months of 2021. However, next year will mark the last opportunity for Macron to push for policy initiatives as the landscape of... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report December 15, 2020 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is this week's updated table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. This update will be the last of this year; we will resume publication... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report December 15, 2020 UK/EU: Why in Brussels, arbitration must not be called arbitration As the negotiations about a post-Brexit trade agreement continue, level playing field provisions and their enforcement remain the central stumbling block. However, the EU’s position has continued to shift away from earlier ideas of “dynamic alignment” and its upfront... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report December 15, 2020 CHILE: Presidential election outlook The governing Chile Vamos (CV) coalition appears relatively well positioned ahead of the 2021 presidential race despite President Sebastian Pinera’s tribulations. The Center-Left lacks strong candidates, while the out-and-out Left is fragmented and in flux. The current popu... Become a member... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 14, 2020 LATAM PULSE This week, there is increasing concern across much of Latin America over the evolution of Covid-19 cases ahead of the upcoming holiday season. In Mexico, an important test of market confidence in President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s repeated promises... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 14, 2020 ASIA: Suga and Moon face rising disapproval as case numbers surge Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are both struggling with eroding political support as their countries face their most significant increases in Covid-19 cases thus far. While in recent weeks Moon has recorded some... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 14, 2020 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Trade negotiations between the UK and the EU continue. Nasqad will remove four Chinese companies’ shares from indexes. South Africa’s president is expected to announce new Covid-19 related measures. Meanwhile, India’s Supreme Court could rule in favor of expelling farmers on pr... Become a member to read the... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report December 14, 2020 SOUTH AFRICA: Covid-19 resurgence On Monday evening, 14 December, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced additional Covid-19 measures to stem the tide of a ‘second wave’ in South Africa. These are urgently required after Health Minister Zweli Mkhize stated last week that South Africa had... By Anne Frühauf Teneo