ZAMBIA: Plan spells headline risk for miners, no clear upside for IMF deal

On 17 December, President Edgar Lungu launched Zambia’s new Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) 2020-2023. If Lungu’s ERP was meant to please the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the immediate effect was to generate headline risk as Lungu signaled his intention to push for majority stakes for the state in mining operations. Even on the macroeconomic front, it remains uncertain whether – beyond familiar rhetoric around debt sustainability and reforms – yet another plan materially improves the chances of a badly needed deal with the IMF. Mining threats are mostly noise