report January 28, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: Signs of monetary tightening spark market jitters... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 27, 2021 RUSSIA: Quick sanctions over protests and Navalny’s arrest unlikely Protests across Russia are likely to continue until the resolution of Alexey Navalny's case. This puts the Kremlin in a challenging position to limit Navalny's influence and constrain the protests' momentum without exacerbating public discontent and provoking a tougher... Teneo
report January 27, 2021 SPAIN: Catalan elections and coalition infighting still main risks to watch Assuming the 14 February Catalan elections take place (a court must still confirm that the vote can be held), its results are likely to have an important bearing on national politics. A defeat of the Republican Left of Catalonia... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report January 27, 2021 NIGERIA: Overdue military reshuffle may smooth US security relations On 26 January, President Muhammadu Buhari replaced the four service chiefs in the first reshuffle of the military top brass since taking office in 2015. Given the persistently deteriorating security situation, the move could have been made long ago;... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report January 27, 2021 ITALY: No quick fix Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on 26 January, just one week after he barely survived a confidence vote in the Senate that highlighted the weakness of his coalition government. Conte tendered his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella, the ultimate... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 27, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Vaccine politics Facing a backlash over its vaccine strategy, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration is scrambling to reassure South Africans that some 30mn vaccines are in the pipeline. Yet few further details regarding vaccination plans were provided at the latest ANC National... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report January 27, 2021 GERMANY: Black zero, not debt brake is the true signpost A renewed debate has emerged about the infamous debt brake after, in a newspaper op-ed, the chief of Angela Merkel’s chancellery argued for changing the constitution to effectively abandon the rule. This, however, remains highly unlikely. Instead, the more... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report January 27, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Government considers some food price controls Pork and vegetable prices have risen substantially over the past few weeks due to supply problems. While President Rodrigo Duterte has so far avoided any major fallout from the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, persistent food inflation may... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report January 27, 2021 CHINA: Ant group crackdown unlikely to extend to other private sector firms Following the suspension of Ant's USD 35bn IPO in November, subsequent regulatory actions have clarified the nature of regulators' concerns about Alibaba/Ant. These actions suggest that the crackdown is primarily a response to specific concerns about a few large... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report January 27, 2021 COLOMBIA: Minister’s death puts spotlight on pandemic and succession challenges The death from Covid-19 of Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo yesterday, 26 January, highlights two challenges facing President Ivan Duque’s government. Most immediately, the public health situation is very serious, while the government is increasingly under fire for being... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 26, 2021 MENA: After 10 years, Arab Spring re-run unlikely The Arab Spring, now ten years on, generally had a greater positive impact in Arab countries that weren’t touched by protests than those that were. Middle- and low-income Arab states have been unable to make large strides addressing youth... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report January 25, 2021 ITALY: Giuseppe Conte: From prime minister to mere spectator Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is now set to resign in a (belated) move aimed at maximizing his chances to return as the top candidate to lead a new government backed by a broader coalition. Conte is expected to step... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 25, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, in Brazil, calls for President Jair Bolsonaro’s impeachment are increasing; upcoming congressional leadership votes will determine whether a formal impeachment process ensues. Meanwhile, another debt swap is causing controversy in Argentina, this time involving state-r... Become... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 25, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Two Chinese-made Covid-19 vaccines will be scrutinized by the WHO. Italy’s prime minister could resign in the coming days. The popularity of Brazil’s president has declined amid a worsening of the pandemic. Meanwhile, Japan will pass a supplemental budget,... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 25, 2021 PERU: What matters ahead of April presidential vote There are just under 11 weeks to go before the 11 April first round of the presidential election. Below we examine the state of the race alongside key signposts and scenarios. Voting intentions remain dispersed, with a high number... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 22, 2021 ITALY: The clock is ticking for Prime Minister Conte As anticipated, the two votes of confidence that took place earlier this week have not brought an end to the political crisis. Left without an outright majority in the Senate, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is still in office,... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 22, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Malaysia, Indonesia struggle to contain Covid spikes before CNY In a note last December, we highlighted the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia as the countries to watch for possible post-holiday surges. Surprisingly, the Philippines appears to have avoided worsening the outbreak. However, the current movement and business restrictions in... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report January 21, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The Czech parliament is considering a bill introducing quotas for domestic food products in large retail outlets. In Poland, a growing reluctance by small businesses to comply with Covid-19 restrictions is increasing pressure on the government to start a... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report January 21, 2021 BRAZIL: Crucial House election will be late nail-biter and hold agenda hostage There is a growing perception that President Jair Bolsonaro’s denialist approach to the Covid-19 pandemic has reached its high point. In the last few days, two northern states – Amazonas and Para – have experienced a significant increase in... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report January 21, 2021 MEXICO: Unpredictable AMLO to complicate bilateral relations with US It is difficult not to see various recent moves by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) as deliberately provocative to the new US administration. AMLO’s contrarian attitude is largely due to his drive to acquire leverage ahead of what... By Nicholas Watson Teneo