report February 24, 2021 UK: Vaccination success leads to lockdown and fiscal debates The country’s stellar vaccination performance has had two implications on the policy front. First, the provision of a first vaccine shot to the 15mn most vulnerable people has raised the expectations for an easing of lockdown measures, to which... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report February 24, 2021 RUSSIA: Vaccine diplomacy overshadows domestic immunization campaign Russia is relying on vaccine diplomacy to bolster its reputation abroad amid deteriorating relations with the West and looming threat of sanctions. Low public trust in domestic vaccines from Covid-19, their production bottlenecks and Moscow’s focus on vaccine diplomacy... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 24, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan’s diversions amid flagging support President Tayyip Erdogan is more and more desperately trying to reverse the long-term decline in his public popularity. A gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions will start in early March while the inoculation program is facing an increasingly urgent shortage... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report February 24, 2021 SPAIN: PSOE-Podemos coalition unlikely to break up The infighting between the ruling center-left Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and far-left Unidas Podemos has intensified in the last few days. While the most recent rift is allegedly due to differences over policy issues, the divisions result from PSOE's... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report February 24, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report February 24, 2021 JAPAN: Suga faces new obstacle as ministry reveals son’s ties with regulators On Wednesday, 24 February, Internal Affairs Minister Ryota Takeda announced the results of an internal investigation that found that 13 current and former Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) officials had violated administrative ethics rules. The officials, 11... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 22, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Ecuador’s electoral tensions will continue after the conservative former banker Guillermo Lasso reached a run-off vote by the narrowest of margins. Controversial electricity sector reforms in Mexico will go to a lower house vote. In Brazil, political... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 22, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS In Myanmar, protests are increasing despite growing violence from security forces. In Ecuador, political tensions remain high ahead of April’s presidential run-off election. Italy could follow the UK’s first-dose strategy. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s action plan against money launderin... Become... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 22, 2021 JAPAN: Political stakes high as vaccination program begins Japan has begun its vaccination program, starting with a limited campaign targeting frontline medical workers. Supply constraints could limit the government’s ability to expand the campaign beyond medical workers in the near term. The vaccination campaign presents Pr... ... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 22, 2021 IRAN: Resumed Iran Diplomacy Will Provide No Easy Path Iran is likely to restrict UN inspectors’ access to nuclear sites on 23 February, following the expiration of a deadline the Iranian parliament imposed on European countries to provide sanctions relief. Iran’s hostile actions, including the attack last on... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report February 19, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Could the pandemic undo Duterte’s succession plans? The economy could face headwinds that range from a slow or uneven vaccine rollout to persistent inflationary pressures. Should the economy become the key issue for the upcoming election season, then Duterte’s ability to influence his succession could weaken.... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 18, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Budget preview – short-term gain, long-term pain? Ahead of the 24 February budget, South Africa’s near-term fiscal outlook has improved slightly relative to last October’s disastrous Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). This is primarily thanks to exogenous factors, not because President Cyril Ramaphosa’s govern... Become... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report February 18, 2021 CHINA: Global tech standard-setting is new battleground for techno-nationalism The Chinese government is likely to formally introduce a new industrial policy blueprint, China Standards 2035, this year after three years of planning. China hawks worry that a coordinated, state-led effort to increase China's influence in global standards-setting bodie...... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report February 18, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report February 18, 2021 BRAZIL: Ideology is crowd-pleaser, but electoral pragmatism new normal President Jair Bolsonaro will talk the talk on ideological platforms but reelection in 2022 calls for pragmatism. There is increasingly little room for far-right policymaking. Stress with the arrest of a Bolsonarista congressman shows the limits of Bolsonaro’s capaci...... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report February 18, 2021 ITALY: Draghi’s program – A break from the past Prime Minister Mario Draghi won his first confidence vote in the Senate late on 17 February, after calling for unity and sacrifices to bring the country out of an unprecedented health and economic emergency. Draghi’s new government, which was... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report February 18, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 18, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: High-level rebuke of energy agency may signal... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 17, 2021 UKRAINE: Zelensky losing trust as reforms stall The independence of anti-corruption agencies, reforms in the judiciary and the phase-out of energy subsidies are among the main prerequisites for the renewal of IMF lending. Quick reform progress appears unlikely due to limited political will and capacity to... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 17, 2021 KENYA: IMF deal heralds return to international debt markets Reforms under Kenya’s three-year USD 2.4bn deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) face political constraints. The Treasury’s fiscal consolidation strategy seems slow but may be gambling on a strong economic recovery and leeway provided by continued pandemic unce...... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo