SOUTH AFRICA: Budget preview – short-term gain, long-term pain?

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Ahead of the 24 February budget, South Africa’s near-term fiscal outlook has improved slightly relative to last October’s disastrous Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). This is primarily thanks to exogenous factors, not because President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has suddenly grasped the reform nettle. Despite short-term relief, the sustainability of the economic recovery and reform momentum will be crucial to avoiding a fiscal cliff around the mid-2020s. Short-term gain Buoyed by commodity prices and global liquidity, better-than-expected revenue forecasts
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