report July 19, 2021 US/CHINA: Warnings on Xinjiang and Hong Kong are more persuasion than threat The US government issued a "supply chain advisory" warning about reputational and legal risks in Xinjiang and is reportedly preparing a similar advisory about operational risks in Hong Kong. Both warnings look like efforts at moral suasion, where the... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report July 15, 2021 GERMANY: Geopolitical prospects beyond Merkel Chancellor Angela Merkel has arrived in Washington for her first official visit since the inauguration of US President Joe Biden. At the same time, this is likely to be Merkel's final trip to the US before her 16 years... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report July 15, 2021 MEXICO: Referendum on ex-presidents is more show than substance On 1 August, there will be a public referendum to decide whether to investigate ex-presidents for corruption and other wrongdoing. Officially, voters will be asked whether they agree that there should be action to "clarify" decisions by "political actors"... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report July 15, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Russia will likely continue to rely on vaccination rather than tight restrictions to cope with the still surging pandemic. The strengthening of anti-migrant and anti-LGBTQ sentiment in Lithuania could give rise to new right-wing political parties. In Poland, the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report July 15, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Eurobond Political Risk Monitor Our Eurobond Political Risk Monitor, presented in the attached table, provides a go-to guide to the main political and policy issues in 17 sub-Saharan African (SSA) sovereigns that have issued Eurobonds as of July 2021. In this edition, our'Spotlights'... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report July 15, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan looks to make provocative move in the Eastern Mediterranean President Tayyip Erdogan is due to visit the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) on 20 July to mark the 47th anniversary of Turkey's invasion of the Mediterranean island, which is celebrated as "Peace and Freedom Day" on the... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report July 15, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report July 14, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: License to loot or higher degree of coordination? The #FreeZuma unrest has wreaked widespread destruction, first and foremost in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province. For now, KZN remains in critical condition, though in Gauteng and elsewhere the unrest appears to be subsiding. Key signals to watch over the coming... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 14, 2021 FRANCE: Macron lays out re-election plan – what to watch Aside from widely reported health measures such as the compulsory vaccination of care workers, President Emmanuel Macron's speech on 12 July included several cues about the government's economic policies ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Below we cover the... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report July 14, 2021 CUBA: Protests can be stifled, but regime’s deeper challenges exposed The wave of anti-government protests that broke out on 11 July and have continued sporadically since then represents the biggest crisis of Miguel Diaz-Canel's presidency and one of the most delicate moments for the regime since the so-called Special... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report July 13, 2021 MYANMAR: Could the generals’ pariah status lead to a humanitarian crisis? By the numbers alone, Myanmar is not among the worst hit by the pandemic in Southeast Asia; averaging daily numbers of 70 new cases per million and 1.1 deaths per million, it is faring better than Malaysia and Indonesia... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report July 13, 2021 TAIWAN: Will vaccine problems weaken support for Tsai and the DPP? A shortage of vaccines amid a recent Coviid-19 outbreak presents a political challenge to President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). In August, four ballot referenda will be viewed as a proxy for the public's view of... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report July 13, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report July 13, 2021 COTE D’IVOIRE: Bedie and Gbagbo solidify their alliance Over the weekend, former presidents Laurent Gbagbo (76; 2000-2011) and Henri Konan Bedie (87; 1993-1999) met at Bedie's rural estate in Douakro. The former arch enemies' very public meeting solidifies an opposition alliance that has been in the making... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report July 13, 2021 BULGARIA: Election will not produce a stable government While reform-oriented opposition lists There is Such People (ITN), Democratic Bulgaria (DB), and Stand Up! Thugs Out! (IS.BG.) will see their position in parliament strengthened following the 11 July legislative elections, they still lack enough seats to form a... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report July 12, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Unrest is bigger than Zuma but when will it die down? Unrest may continue at least for the next few days, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), after ex-president Jacob Zuma was remanded in custody for contempt of court. Zuma's imprisonment was the spark that has ignited the #freeZuma and #shutdown unrest,... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 12, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China has condemned the US decision to blacklist more Chinese companies. The EU will present a set of green legislative projects. Ethiopia's election results have been announced. Germany's chancellor will visit the US president. Meanwhile, India's PM will gather... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report July 10, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Changes in tactics as Covid-19 cases spike New Covid-19 case and fatality numbers continue to set daily records in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar, despite restrictions throughout the region generally being tightened during the past month. Malaysia may also soon exceed its previous peaks. And, more... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report July 9, 2021 BRAZIL: Neither impeachment, nor reform, Bolsonaro out on a limb The Senate inquiry into the pandemic (CPI) has reached a significant inflection point, having refocused from presidential denialism to systemic corruption. The CPI has divided supporters of the president in Congress, especially the "Big Center" parties. Reforms have become... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report July 9, 2021 INDIA: Fixing the optics by changing the faces but challenges persist A comprehensive reshuffle of federal government departments and ministers attempts to fix responsibility and refurbish the government's image. Upcoming elections in several states were an important driver. Conceding that India's management of the Covid-19 pandemic had been subo... ... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
