report September 17, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 17, 2021 ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday's primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 17, 2021 CHINA: Evergrande default now likely, Beijing’s focus shifts to damage control Evergrande appears highly likely to default on US dollar bonds, contrary to our previous forecast that the company would receive a government bailout. But the government is not adopting a pure laissez-faire approach and will participate in the restructuring,... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 17, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Two popular caretaker ministers could attract a significant share of protest votes in Bulgaria's parliamentary elections scheduled for 14 November. In Croatia, a small right-wing party will attempt to initiate a referendum on the country's potential entry into the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 17, 2021 MALAYSIA: Positive optics for unity pact, but deal is vulnerable New prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob struck a deal on Monday, 13 September, with the opposition Alliance of Hope (Pakatan Harapan, or PH) coalition to push forward with electoral reforms. In exchange, Pakatan agreed not to table a confidence... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 15, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 15, 2021 NIGERIA: How FX scarcity, VAT spat point to 2023 As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to clamp down on USD sales in the parallel market, the soaring demand for the greenback in that segment may be fueled by the onset of the political campaigning season. In... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 14, 2021 UK: Electoral politics driving supply chain disruptions The UK has once more extended the grace periods for border checks in the Irish Sea - this time, however, accepted by the EU. While this will mean more time for both sides to find solutions, hopes for a... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 14, 2021 ROMANIA: Political outlook hinges on PNL leader elections The upcoming leader election in the ruling National Liberal Party (PNL) on 25 September is both the cause and a key to the resolution of the ongoing government crisis. If Prime Minister Florin Citu wins the leadership contest, a... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 14, 2021 KOREAN PENINSULA: Pyongyang’s new missile test may be an invitation to engage North Korea has tested a new long-range cruise missile, which appears to be a step towards developing a nuclear-capable cruise missile that would enhance survivability and increase the sophistication of its overall nuclear forces. The timing represents a complementary... By Teneo, Victor Cha Teneo
report September 13, 2021 GERMANY: Two risks to a Scholz chancellorship Yesterday's (12 September) main debate of the three chancellor candidates was watched by more than 10mn people and produced few surprises. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz from the Social Democrats (SPD) won the debate in the eyes of 41% the... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 13, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Argentina's governing coalition is reeling from a heavy setback in yesterday's obligatory primary voting which will be difficult to reverse in November's mid-terms. Ecuador will see union-led protests against government reform proposals. This week also offers an... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 13, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Antitrust efforts are escalating in China. An Olaf Scholz chancellorship is becoming more and more likely in Germany. Argentina's ruling party suffered a setback in a congressional primary vote. Meanwhile, the ruling party's leadership contest will start in Japan... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Mid-term primary takeaways The governing Front for All (FdT) suffered a major setback in the party primaries held yesterday ahead of the partial mid-term legislative elections scheduled for 14 November - as we previously anticipated. Since voting is obligatory, the primaries assume... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 13, 2021 US/CHINA: Biden’s China trade strategy takes shape A phone call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not yield new policy outcomes, but the tone was friendlier and less accusatory than recent bilateral meetings. Washington initiated the phone call, which appears to... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 10, 2021 IRAN: US-Iran ties enter new period of brinkmanship Iran and the US seem determined to demonstrate to each other they are not desperate for a nuclear weapons agreement. Iran may seek to hedge the destabilizing effects of its nuclear actions by lowering tensions with regional neighbors. The... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report September 10, 2021 JAPAN: Kono enters the race as government charts a path out of restrictions Favorite Taro Kono has announced his LDP leadership candidacy running as a paternalistic conservative and has notably softened his opposition to nuclear power. Fumio Kishida is adopting a more populist economic rhetoric, and low-polling hardliner Sanae Takaichi would double... By Teneo Teneo
report September 10, 2021 MYANMAR: Opposition calls for an uprising, but its capabilities remain limited Myanmar's shadow National Unity Government (NUG) this week launched an armed resistance to the junta in Yangon, calling on citizens to "revolt against the rule of the military terrorists." The NUG also outlined its plans to raise funds to... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 10, 2021 UK: Government wins on social care in parliament but loses in opinion polls PM Boris Johnson this week managed to get parliamentary approval for a package to tackle Covid healthcare backlogs and improve social care funding. GBP 12bn annually in extra taxation will be raised via a 1.25 percentage point increase in... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 9, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Stumbling towards the 1 Nov local elections While the Electoral Commission (IEC) should be able to pull off the organization of local elections now set for 1 November, the process threatens to be politically messy and legally contested. Unless the ruling African National Congress (ANC) manages... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
