report November 19, 2020 Global Letter: Groundhog day in Turkey Turkey has once again succumbed to some of its all too familiar failings. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose We at Llewellyn Consulting have long argued that some economies behave as if they are prisoners of their... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report November 17, 2020 Comment: The importance of inflation expectations Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For now, inflation expectations are... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report November 12, 2020 Life extension Life extension aims to extend dramatically humans’ healthy lifespan; but current approaches lack evidence. Technologies-series-Life-extension-November-2020 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By James Cameron, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report November 5, 2020 Economic Risks OECD: second waves and double dips The first half saw the sharpest and broadest contraction in OECD economic activity since the Great Depression. After a rapid rebound in Q3, when lockdowns were eased, recovery has slackened off in the... By John Llewellyn, Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report October 28, 2020 Comment – Default Options The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liquidity... By John Llewellyn, Preston Llewellyn, Russell Jones, Soyon Park Llewellyn Consulting
report October 20, 2020 Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies 1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pandemic, be... Become... By John Llewellyn, Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report October 16, 2020 Global Letter – Cold realities Broader ramifications of COVID are set to come into sharper relief, not least in the UK. Tough economic times coming Commentary in today’s 24/7 news world tends to be intrinsically incremental. But step back and reflect, and it becomes... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report October 9, 2020 Next-generation nuclear Safer, smaller, more efficient, the next generation of nuclear power is on the horizon – but not much closer. What it is Next-generation nuclear aims to address the various safety, sustainability, efficiency, and cost issues that afflict older reactors,... By James Cameron, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report October 2, 2020 Postcard: Staycation in London Cleaner, less noisy, less polluted, but operating well below capacity. Not being keen on self-isolating, we decided not to travel abroad this year, but rather to have a (ghastly word) ‘staycation’ in London. After all, many people travel far... By John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report September 30, 2020 Chart of the month – Europe – Change in the fiscal stance Europe’s recovery requires that fiscal policy not be tightened prematurely … that the mistakes of the post Global Financial Crisis period be avoided Fiscal policy worldwide has been expanded extraordinarily in response to the pandemic Support to incomes... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report September 24, 2020 Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be financed by borrowing Neither need they be reco...... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report September 11, 2020 Focus – Abenomics is found wanting The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is now exhausted, and progress in structural reform has... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report September 7, 2020 Cancer vaccines What it is Cancer vaccines enable people’s immune systems to target cancer cells, instead of an infectious agent, such as a virus or bacterium. They aim either to prevent cancer or to cure it. 1 How it works Vaccination... By Preston Llewellyn, Soyon Park Llewellyn Consulting
report September 3, 2020 Economics Risks Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveries Balance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMs Fiscal policy support is withdrawn too soon Real activity takes several years to return to recent highs Near-zero inflation becomes embedded in the... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report September 2, 2020 Climate change and disease spread: from nature to humans Rising temperatures and destruction of ecosystems are set to increase health risks Covid-19 shows how an animal-borne virus can wreak havoc on humankind. It is vital that its precise origins and transmission process become better understood, so as to... By John Llewellyn, Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report August 27, 2020 Post Card – Estonia: A country of many faces Natural beauty and tech savviness make this small state a perfect remote-working destination I write this overlooking a quiet bay on the Western coast of Estonia. Nearest civilization is about half an hour’s drive away. The only background ‘noise’... By Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report August 26, 2020 Household balance sheets will deteriorate as joblessness rises This stands to feed back negatively on the financial sector 1. Consumer credit write-offs typically rise with unemployment. − Interesting data from the Bank of England show that each 1-point rise in ... Become a member to read the... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report August 20, 2020 Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years. Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era. Pyrrhic victories in two world wars only deepened... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report August 12, 2020 Global Letter: Our reference G7 multi-year GDP outlook On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024 Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or... By John Llewellyn, Soyon Park Llewellyn Consulting
report August 4, 2020 Economic Risks The recovery process proves beholden to course of the virus Policy support is insufficient and withdrawn too soon Underlying growth potential is further significantly reduced Balance sheet weaknesses spark a cascade of EM defaults A ‘no-deal’ Brexit leaves the... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
