Economic Risks

Economic Risks

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The recovery process proves beholden to course of the virus Policy support is insufficient and withdrawn too soonUnderlying growth potential is further significantly reducedBalance sheet weaknesses spark a cascade of EM defaultsA ‘no-deal’ Brexit leaves the UK ‘the sick man’ of the OECDA chaotic US Presidential election roils risk asset markets OECD: an initially sharp recovery has moderated somewhat Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers put the world economy into the equivalent of an induced coma. OECD real GDP fell 1.8% q-o-q in Q1, the deepest contraction
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Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID

( 21 mins read ) Press play to listen Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be

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Focus – Abenomics is found wanting

( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is

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Cancer vaccines

( 3 mins read ) What it is Cancer vaccines enable people’s immune systems to target cancer cells, instead of an infectious agent, such as a virus or bacterium. They aim either to prevent cancer or to cure it. 1

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Economics Risks

( 6 mins read ) Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveriesBalance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMsFiscal policy support is withdrawn too soonReal activity takes several years to return to recent highsNear-zero inflation becomes embedded in the

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Post Card – Estonia: A country of many faces

( 4 mins read ) Natural beauty and tech savviness make this small state a perfect remote-working destination I write this overlooking a quiet bay on the Western coast of Estonia. Nearest civilization is about half an hour’s drive away.

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Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years.Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era.Pyrrhic victories

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Technologies series: DNA data storage

( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Vast volumes of data can be stored, condensed into DNA. What it is DNA data storage is the archiving and retrieving of data to and from synthetic strands of DNA. Data

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The second quarter of 2020 is the first quarter in a long time where the combined increase in the net foreign assets of the PBOC and the state banks came close to $100b -- a typical sum back in the days when China was actively resisting appreciation pressure

I, for one, find China’s current policies in Xinjiang deplorable, but this thread gets straight to the heart of how the discourse on Xinjiang is getting derailed and why many Chinese people who would otherwise support criticism on XJ feel alienated and even attacked on the topic. https://twitter.com/chengxinpan/status/1310336009624719360

Chengxin Pan@ChengxinPan

them, using all sorts of techniques and name-calling. Again there is nothing good faith about those kinds of behaviours. Research in good faith also entails comparing China's policy to similar policies in other countries: if these are concentration camps, then do please compare

[ACTIVIDAD ECONÓMICA]

- En julio continuó recuperándose (1.1% m/m), aunque a menor ritmo que en mayo y junio, y todavía se encuentra 11.6% debajo de febrero

- En términos interanuales, el indicador oficial se contrajo 13.2%

- En el acumulado la caída fue de 12.6%

@kiguel

Speaks to breakdowns of civic-mindedness, lack of central authority, subversion of institutions, and a whole bunch of other not-great things. Tax evasion is a wonderful proxy marker.

El Director de la consultora @Poliarquia_, Eduardo Fidanza explica los problemas que atraviesa la Argentina y dónde podría estar la recuperación de la iniciativa del gobierno.
@CanalNetAr @perfilcom

https://www.perfil.com/noticias/reperfilar/columna-fidanza-24092020.phtml

Para el turno mañana, va el link a La Economía en 3 minutos. Esta semana "La cuarentena desigual". El mercado de trabajo derretido y suba de desigualdad pasaron casi desaparcibidos en una semana caótica.

https://anchor.fm/andres109/episodes/La-cuarentena-desigual-ek8dss

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