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Macro Series
Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID
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Economic Risks
Teneo
January 5, 2021
( < 1 min read ) Please find attached the January issue of our monthly Economic Risks. Below is a top-level summary: A rampaging virus and lockdowns extend secondary dips Immunisation programmes take time to reach critical mass Bankruptcies, joblessness, poverty, and inequality
Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond
Llewellyn Consulting
December 11, 2020
( 2 mins read ) LlewellynConsulting’s Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond details what we judge most likely to happen; and pays particular attention to detailing what we see as the main risks and uncertainties. There is
Economic Risks
Teneo
December 2, 2020
( < 1 min read ) Secondary dips in activity multiplying before vaccines arrive A US Presidential inauguration surrounded by chaos Inflation falling further and remaining uncomfortably low Fiscal support being extended, further boosting debt ratios Central banks becoming yet more
Global Letter: Groundhog day in Turkey
Llewellyn Consulting
November 19, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Turkey has once again succumbed to some of its all too familiar failings. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose We at Llewellyn Consulting have long argued that some economies behave as if they
Comment: The importance of inflation expectations
Llewellyn Consulting
November 17, 2020
( 9 mins read ) Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For
Comment – Default Options
Llewellyn Consulting
October 28, 2020
( 11 mins read ) The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is
Global Letter – Cold realities
Llewellyn Consulting
October 16, 2020
( 4 mins read ) Press play to listen Broader ramifications of COVID are set to come into sharper relief, not least in the UK. Tough economic times coming Commentary in today’s 24/7 news world tends to be intrinsically incremental.
Chart of the month – Europe – Change in the fiscal stance
Teneo
September 30, 2020
( 2 mins read ) Europe’s recovery requires that fiscal policy not be tightened prematurely … that the mistakes of the post Global Financial Crisis period be avoided Fiscal policy worldwide has been expanded extraordinarily in response to the
Focus – Abenomics is found wanting
Llewellyn Consulting
September 11, 2020
( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is
Economics Risks
Llewellyn Consulting
September 3, 2020
( 6 mins read ) Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveriesBalance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMsFiscal policy support is withdrawn too soonReal activity takes several years to return to recent highsNear-zero inflation becomes embedded in the
Household balance sheets will deteriorate as joblessness rises
Llewellyn Consulting
August 26, 2020
( 2 mins read ) This stands to feed back negatively on the financial sector 1. Consumer credit write-offs typically rise with unemployment. − Interesting data from the Bank of England show that each 1-point rise in the unemployment rate is
Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia
Llewellyn Consulting
August 20, 2020
( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years.Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era.Pyrrhic victories