Economics Risks

Macro Series

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Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveriesBalance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMsFiscal policy support is withdrawn too soonReal activity takes several years to return to recent highsNear-zero inflation becomes embedded in the euro areaA ‘no-deal’ Brexit greatly adds to the UK’s economic woes OECD: the recovery process faces tough challenges OECD real GDP fell an unprecedented 9.8% q-o-q in Q1 (-10.9% y-o-y), after registering a 1.8% decline in Q1.The pace of the initial recovery from the pandemic-related shutdown of March-May if anything exceeded exp
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Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID

( 21 mins read ) Press play to listen Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be

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Focus – Abenomics is found wanting

( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is

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Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years.Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era.Pyrrhic victories

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Comment: Money talks

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Monetary growth has accelerated, prompting inflation warnings from Monetarists The pick-up reflects extraordinary policy interventions in response to the pandemic Demand for money balances has risen too, although the surge appears

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Global Letter – Tip of the iceberg

( 7 mins read ) Press play to listen The basic science has long been known: but the planet is warming faster than expected. COVID-19 is a sharp reminder of humankind’s fragility and its linkages with the natural world. Headlines

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Comment: Forgive us our debts …

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen Total global debt has continued to burgeon in the ten years since the Financial Crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic stands greatly to add to debt burdens. Much of the additional debt that

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Global Letter – The EU: on the money

( 6 mins read ) Press play to listen The EU’s recovery programme is a potential game changer for the economy and the single currency. Decisive moment In his memoirs, European visionary and revered French diplomat Jean Monnet asserted that:

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Financial repression: a more subtle knife

( 14 mins read ) High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can be more subtle and covert. It can take the form of inflation, regulation, and the creation of ‘captive markets’ for bonds. The stage is set for an extended period of financial repression.

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Macro series – The burden of Sisyphus

( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen Focus  The pandemic and the reaction to it will result in a surge in public sector liabilities. Gross G-7 debt is projected to rise to an all-time high of 140% of

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The second quarter of 2020 is the first quarter in a long time where the combined increase in the net foreign assets of the PBOC and the state banks came close to $100b -- a typical sum back in the days when China was actively resisting appreciation pressure

I, for one, find China’s current policies in Xinjiang deplorable, but this thread gets straight to the heart of how the discourse on Xinjiang is getting derailed and why many Chinese people who would otherwise support criticism on XJ feel alienated and even attacked on the topic. https://twitter.com/chengxinpan/status/1310336009624719360

Chengxin Pan@ChengxinPan

them, using all sorts of techniques and name-calling. Again there is nothing good faith about those kinds of behaviours. Research in good faith also entails comparing China's policy to similar policies in other countries: if these are concentration camps, then do please compare

[ACTIVIDAD ECONÓMICA]

- En julio continuó recuperándose (1.1% m/m), aunque a menor ritmo que en mayo y junio, y todavía se encuentra 11.6% debajo de febrero

- En términos interanuales, el indicador oficial se contrajo 13.2%

- En el acumulado la caída fue de 12.6%

@kiguel

Speaks to breakdowns of civic-mindedness, lack of central authority, subversion of institutions, and a whole bunch of other not-great things. Tax evasion is a wonderful proxy marker.

El Director de la consultora @Poliarquia_, Eduardo Fidanza explica los problemas que atraviesa la Argentina y dónde podría estar la recuperación de la iniciativa del gobierno.
@CanalNetAr @perfilcom

https://www.perfil.com/noticias/reperfilar/columna-fidanza-24092020.phtml

Para el turno mañana, va el link a La Economía en 3 minutos. Esta semana "La cuarentena desigual". El mercado de trabajo derretido y suba de desigualdad pasaron casi desaparcibidos en una semana caótica.

https://anchor.fm/andres109/episodes/La-cuarentena-desigual-ek8dss

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