Household balance sheets will deteriorate as joblessness rises

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This stands to feed back negatively on the financial sector   1.    Consumer credit write-offs typically rise with unemployment. −         Interesting data from the Bank of England show that each 1-point rise in the unemployment rate is accompanied by around a 1 percentage point increase in the consumer debt write-off rate.  2.    In most countries, the unwinding of policy support is set to drive joblessness significantly higher. 3.    The OECD forecasts that, even in
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Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID

( 21 mins read ) Press play to listen Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be

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Focus – Abenomics is found wanting

( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen The record of Abenomics is at best mixed, and at worst a chronicle of failure. Overall growth potential is minimal, lowflation embedded, and vulnerability to shocks high. Orthodox macro policy is

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Economics Risks

( 6 mins read ) Viral resurgences further set back incipient recoveriesBalance sheet distress intensifies, not least in the EMsFiscal policy support is withdrawn too soonReal activity takes several years to return to recent highsNear-zero inflation becomes embedded in the

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Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years.Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era.Pyrrhic victories

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Comment: Money talks

( 9 mins read ) Press play to listen Monetary growth has accelerated, prompting inflation warnings from Monetarists The pick-up reflects extraordinary policy interventions in response to the pandemic Demand for money balances has risen too, although the surge appears

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Global Letter – Tip of the iceberg

( 7 mins read ) Press play to listen The basic science has long been known: but the planet is warming faster than expected. COVID-19 is a sharp reminder of humankind’s fragility and its linkages with the natural world. Headlines

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Comment: Forgive us our debts …

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen Total global debt has continued to burgeon in the ten years since the Financial Crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic stands greatly to add to debt burdens. Much of the additional debt that

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Global Letter – The EU: on the money

( 6 mins read ) Press play to listen The EU’s recovery programme is a potential game changer for the economy and the single currency. Decisive moment In his memoirs, European visionary and revered French diplomat Jean Monnet asserted that:

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Financial repression: a more subtle knife

( 14 mins read ) High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can be more subtle and covert. It can take the form of inflation, regulation, and the creation of ‘captive markets’ for bonds. The stage is set for an extended period of financial repression.

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Macro series – The burden of Sisyphus

( 17 mins read ) Press play to listen Focus  The pandemic and the reaction to it will result in a surge in public sector liabilities. Gross G-7 debt is projected to rise to an all-time high of 140% of

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Tercer mes seguido en que las exportaciones a brasil recuperan a doble digito m/m sin estacionalidad. Más que la soja, nos va a ayudar Brasil que va a terminar cayendo menos de 5% este año con crecimiento de 3.5% en 2021.

EL ICC CAE 2,4% EN SEPTIEMBRE
El Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (ICC) elaborado por el @CIF_UTDT junto a @Poliarquia_ se sitúa en 40,3 puntos en septiembre, marcando una reducción de 2,4%. Desde el primer mes de gestión de Alberto Fernández, el ICC cae 6,3%. #EncuestaMensual

Today the @EU_Commission published its new action plan for Capital Markets Union. It looks... pretty much like the previous action plans that have been unveiled with some regularity since JC Juncker first used the #CMU buzzword in 2014. (1/N) https://ec.europa.eu/finance/docs/law/200924-capital-markets-union-action-plan_en.pdf

新著「The Iconoclast: Shinzo Abe and the New Japan」の著者Tobias Harris氏(@observingjapan )を招き、歴在首相のなかで最長の連続在任期間をもつ政治家安倍晋三氏の業績や世界に与えた影響、そして今後の日本についてお話し頂きます。

参加費は無料です。お申し込み: https://bit.ly/2EpPWhY https://twitter.com/JASHouston/status/1308784978654834691

JapanAmerica Houston@JASHouston

THIS FRIDAY, SEP 25, at NOON, join JASH and @WACHouston for a conversation with Japan watcher and author @observingjapan’s Tobias Harris on Prime Minister Abe's departure and what lies ahead.

#TheIconoclast

“presidentialism works just like Linz said it would. In the current moment, we see all the perils of presidentialism, w/ the legacies of American’s social & economic foundations”

It’s all in Linz. The rest is commentary. Go and learn with Rav @TomPepinsky. https://twitter.com/tompepinsky/status/1309101118060933121

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Tom Pepinsky@TomPepinsky

America is a Normal Country: Presidentialism Can Break It, and Exceptionalism Won’t Save It http://tompepinsky.com/2020/09/24/america-is-a-normal-country-presidentialism-can-break-it-and-exceptionalism-wont-save-it/

I've updated the events page at my webpage to include all of my recent book talks and panel discussions: https://observingjapan.com/category/events/.

It was far from obvious when he was reelected that Shinzo Abe would not only stay in office for more than seven years but dominate Japan’s political system as no leader had before. Read @observingjapan on the uphill battle ahead of Abe’s successor:
https://trib.al/2Mwa8v5

It's official! @NAR will rebrand as "Nikkei Asia" next Wednesday (Sept. 30). And to mark this momentous occasion on the day, all stories will be free to read.

Better still, subscribe!

Talk for the British Chamber of Commerce Japan, 7 September http://youtube.com/watch?v=5dnEPTto5Lo&feature=youtu.be http://observingjapan.com/2020/09/24/talk-for-the-british-chamber-of-commerce-japan-7-september/

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