Global Letter: Our reference G7 multi-year GDP outlook

Macro Series

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On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024 Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or more) and novel. 1 This time, the COVID-19 lockdown shock is unquestionably large, and indubitably novel, having originated outside the economic system, and provoking an unusual response: neither on the occasion of the 1957 influenza pandemic, which killed an estimated 1 million people worldwide, nor after the 1968 pandemic (which killed an estimated 1 to 4 million) did policymakers l
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"Risks and Opportunities for the Euro" https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_STU(2020)652751 . A study Daniel Gros and I did for the European Parliament on the prospects for enhancing the currency's international role.

Shinzo Abe presided over an astonishing period of stability in Japan. His successor promises continuity, but a recession, an aggressive China, and a possible second Trump term will make it difficult to deliver on that promise, @observingjapan argues.
https://trib.al/Bcbe1U8

I don't think I've read anything that lays bare America's "cold civil war" as well as @jbouie does here. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/opinion/trump-supreme-court-missouri-compromise.html

Pucha, qué DURA qué esta la economía argentina...
La economía argentina:
https://r24n.com/contenido/198177/primicia-exclusiva-alvarez-agis-remplazaria-a-martin-guzman-como-ministro-de-eco

mi nota de hoy en @Cronistacom #dolar #Crisis https://www.cronista.com/columnistas/El-problema-es-el-exagerado-poder-del-Instituto-Patria-20200924-0056.html

Hay que sacar a la política económica de la cuarentena

Compartimos nota que publicamos hoy con @MattigFran en @Cronistacom

https://www.cronista.com/columnistas/Hay-que-sacar-a-la-politica-economica-de-la-cuarentena-20200925-0020.html

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