report August 1, 2021 Apple’s Financial Engineering A virtuous cycle. How Apple boosted shareholder value and avoided taxes.... By Alessio Farhadi Speevr Intelligence
report July 15, 2021 SURVEY RESULTS: Bitcoin, Big Tech, and Bonds Based on a survey with 74 respondents QUESTION 1 By the end of this quarter on 30th Sep 2021, which of these portfolio allocations do you expect to have the highest total return (in USD)? (Assume no transaction costs and fees.) QUESTION 2 By the end of this quarter on 30th Sep 2021, which of these portfolio allocations do you expect to have the highest... By Alessio Farhadi
report July 13, 2021 Robinhood IPO & Euro 2020 Final Stats There is only one ball, so you need to have it. – Johan Cruyff The ‘reflation' trade of recent weeks in a nutshell… Euro 2020 Final analysis – Italy vs England It went to Rome! The match stats over the 120 minutes played tells us England coach (Gareth Southgate) and players did wellto take the game to a penalty shootout. And, it almost paid off!... By Alessio Farhadi
report July 7, 2021 AI: DeepMind & The Beautiful Game/Euro 2020 The margin for error is so small… one half a step too late or too early and you don't quite make it. One half second too slow, too fast and you don't quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break of the game, every minute, every second. – Al Pacino [Link to... By Alessio Farhadi
report May 26, 2021 Crypto: Fed Governor Brainard on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) “Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.” – Theodore Roosevelt Until this week, the Federal Reserve's experimentation with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) was conducted through a joint study by the Boston Fed and Project Hamilton at MIT. This is an open-ended initiative focused primarily on consumer payment technologies. On Monday, Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard sharpened the... By Alessio Farhadi
report May 17, 2021 Will CB Digital Currencies threaten Bitcoin? Money often costs too much – Ralph Waldo Emerson We believe the short answer is ‘No'. When you follow the money trail, it becomes apparent the debate about decentralized versus Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) is more about the Fractional Reserve Banking system, and possible alternatives. This discussion extends beyond cryptocurrencies, and includes facilitation of trades in government debt securities under... By Alessio Farhadi
report May 4, 2021 Updated Polls: Holyrood Elections 2021 We consistently see the Scottish Conservatives trailing Labour in recent regional election polls across all demographic groups. There is less variance in the popularity of the SNP across different age/gender groups in our polls than in official polls, unlike other parties. This means the lower turnout rates amongst younger voters will have a greater impact on the final outcome for the minority... By Alessio Farhadi
report April 12, 2021 Holyrood Elections 2021 Please contact us if you are interested in learning more about our private polling services and offerings. Key points: Support for the SNP is consistent across all age groups, and particularly strong amongst female voters. Alex Salmond's new Alba Party has stalled around 4% of total support. There is a high likelihood of the Conservatives losing several constituency... By Alessio Farhadi
report April 10, 2021 Bitcoin, NFTs, and Digital Repos Think about this for a moment… To-date, nobody has managed to duplicate a Bitcoin (BTC)… And, if someone has found a way to clone Bitcoins on a regular basis there would be little incentive for them to make that public. At present, the number of technologists and cryptographers invested in safeguarding the future of Bitcoin far out numbers those... By Alessio Farhadi
report April 8, 2021 Scottish Elections: Salmond & Sturgeon Partnership of Convenience? With the Holyrood Elections on 4th May 2021 less than a month away, we will be increasing our (private) smartphone polling efforts as we draw closer to the date. The recent launch of the Alba Party by the former (SNP) First Minister, Alex Salmond, so close to the election date has altered the polling arithmetics and increased uncertainty. The... By Alessio Farhadi
report April 7, 2021 LARRY SUMMERS – FISCAL POLICY ADVICE FOR JOE BIDEN AND CONGRESS Full transcript THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WEBINAR FISCAL POLICY ADVICE FOR JOE BIDEN AND CONGRESS Washington, D.C. Tuesday, December 1, 2020 Larry Summers Let me make a few points. First, with respect to the global savings glut, Lucas Racial and I looked pretty carefully at that issue. Over the last 25 years, the current account deficit or surplus of the... By Alessio Farhadi
report March 16, 2021 Local reports of Russia/Ukraine armed tensions continue Original Press Release in Ukranian Machine English Translation: Summary of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the situation in the area of the Joint Forces operation We bring to your attention the summary of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the situation in the area of the Joint Forces... By Alessio Farhadi
report January 28, 2021 GameStop(ped) Out Objective: To prevent a significant loss that will undermine the financial system, crystallize a loss (gain) for the hedge funds (redditors) short (long) GME stocks without resorting to new and extraordinary measures. SOLUTION: Issue a convertible/hybrid instrument to counterbalance the sky high (~700%) demand for call-options on GME shares. What we know to begin with: In its simplest form, Modigliani-Miller... By Alessio Farhadi
report January 7, 2021 BioNTech Founders Türeci and Şahin on the Battle against COVID-19 Original Article in DER SPIEGEL Please always attribute credit to the original sources and make financial contributions when possible to help maintain outstanding research and journalism. “To See People Finally Benefitting from Our Work Is Really Moving” In a DER SPIEGEL interview, BioNTech founders Özlem Türeci and Uğur Şahin discuss the development of the world's first COVID-19 vaccine, what... By Alessio Farhadi
report December 14, 2020 US Presidential Election Series 2020 “2016 was a failure of the imagination, not a failure in data” – Matthew Shelter, Fox News Pollster Official Polls Converging with High Frequency Data As we draw closer to November 3rd, the past week has seen some top outlets (NY Times/Fox News) released a series of polls suggesting the Trump campaign has fallen further behind in the key battleground states. With the... By Alessio Farhadi
report December 5, 2020 EXCLUSIVE: Scottish Independence Polls Smartphone Private Polls We will take you through the steps to better understand the interpretations of the results and (more importantly) the associated uncertainties. Our survey panel consists of 1296 randomly selected respondents which is broadly consistent with standard sample sizes of most political polls (e.g. YouGov). Are you in favour of Scotland leaving the United Kingdom (UK) Union? We see a significant shift in... By Alessio Farhadi
report November 30, 2020 Iran: The View From Tehran On Iran… “Pride, insecurity, interest, fear, and honor” – Norman Roule, Former Head of CIA Iran desk The view from Tehran Many conflicting reports have emerged of the events leading up to the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (head of Iran's nuclear program) over the past 24-hours. The veracity of some which are highly dubious. Sadly, we live in an era of truth... By Alessio Farhadi
report November 20, 2020 Market Survey Results SURVEY RESULTS: 116 anonymous respondents predominantly financial market professionals. 1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what is your best guesstimate for the level in 6 months time?” 2) “If Global GDP in 2021 is around 5-6% as most economists project, what will be the likely impact on US 10 years bond yields? (Using the current 10 year... By Alessio Farhadi
report November 20, 2020 How independently do financier think? Yesterday, we released the results of our markets survey (see below). Typically, a respondent will compare his/her responses against those of the masses in order to identify potential pitfalls of group-think. Unfortunately, the top line figures are not as helpful with this process as one would like. So, we thought we would share a simple survey analysis to demonstrate how cognitive biases and group-thinking are formed, and how we... By Alessio Farhadi
report November 18, 2020 Our Debut Survey Results Thank you to all those who participated. We received 116 anonymous responses in total – predominantly from financial market professionals. Going forward, we will try harder to get higher participation rates amongst corporate treasuries and our tech industry followers. The results presented below are raw data and should not be interpreted as financial advice. 1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what is your best guesstimate... By Alessio Farhadi
report November 2, 2020 US Election Forecast We project Biden to win by 340-355 Electoral College Votes (see below) Why are the implied odds for a Trump victory much lower in the betting markets than those of Nate Silver's (FiveThirtyEight) model? This may be a bit like asking why England trade at high betting odds to win the (soccer) World Cup, or the Yankees in the World Series. Unfortunately, we have no... By Alessio Farhadi
report October 24, 2020 US Election Polls: Data Blind Spots As requested by several members, we have updated our previous stats report of US Election polls. We highlight some potential statistical pitfalls of the (aggregate) polls with states such as Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Indiana at most risk of surprise outcome. Modeling and methods of panel construction are beyond the scope of discussion in this brief report. The figure below shows the states we consider at highest risk... By Alessio Farhadi
report October 18, 2020 Comment on Mobility Data Weekly Political Compass In recent weeks some market economists have drawn attention to the recent down ticks in mobility data as an early indicator of a slow down in economic activity within Europe. Whilst this may be valid, we believe the mobility evidenced arguments are not entirely formed on solid basis. Here is why… The most commonly used mobility datasets are those released by Apple and Google. Unfortunately, these time... By Alessio Farhadi
report October 12, 2020 Christine Lagarde, ECB Head Her speech centred on the structural changes ahead for Europe which she divides into 2 categories: ‘Good ones' and ‘bad ones'. As an optimist she likes to focus on the positives: Only 10% of those surveyed have an urge to go back to the office. A new form of more flexible work will emerge. Growth in E-commerce as a business activity.... By Alessio Farhadi
