On Iran… “Pride, insecurity, interest, fear, and honor”
– Norman Roule, Former Head of CIA Iran desk
The view from Tehran
Many conflicting reports have emerged of the events leading up to the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (head of Iran's nuclear program) over the past 24-hours. The veracity of some which are highly dubious. Sadly, we live in an era of truth decay where official sources in Tehran can no longer be deemed less reliable than statements coming out the White House.
We continue to share the view that the fundamental driver of all Iran nuclear related matters is the pace of progress of the Uranium enrichment and missile testing programs. Talk of war and conflict are highly speculative at this stage, and are commonly peddled by the less informed.
Some key facts:
- Yesterday, Iran's parliament (yes, dictatorships have governments!) passed a bill with a 232/246 majority to speed up Iran's enrichment program to reach 20% of highly enriched uranium by 21st March 2021 (Iranian New Year).
- Nuclear weapons typically use 20-85% of the Uranium 235 isotope. Mined Uranium typically contains <1% of the 235 Uranium isotope, with the 238 as the most naturally occurring.
- According to an IAEA report published in September 2020, Iran was estimated to be 3.5-4 months away from reaching nuclear ‘break-out' at the end of August. Iran also had 10 times the level of 3-5% enriched Uranium permitted under the JCPOA.
- The regime in Tehran is rational in its decisions in order to meet their primary objectives – maintaining domestic and regional power. Often at great costs to the population. They have managed to keep a grip of power for over 40 years where the current Trump administration has managed just 4. It can wait few more weeks for the new Biden administration.
- Iran's population is ethnically and racially as diverse as the US (see tables below), facing many of the same social and political challenges of inequality. Thus, the narrative of an advanced enemy with highly sophisticated remote control weapons serves as a convenient distraction from the details of who and how Friday's operation unfolded.
