Report Contents

November 20, 2020

Market Survey Results

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( 2 mins)

SURVEY RESULTS: 116 anonymous respondents predominantly financial market professionals.

1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what is your best guesstimate for the level in 6 months time?”

Market Survey Results 1

2) “If Global GDP in 2021 is around 5-6% as most economists project, what will be the likely impact on US 10 years bond yields? (Using the current 10 year rate of 0.92% as your reference)”

Comment: Current consensus estimates for 2021 Global GDP by sell-side economists are around 3-4% with Goldman Sachs an outlier with an additional +2% contribution due to rapid advances in vaccine development. Apologies for this mistake.

Market Survey Results 2

3) “What is your best guesstimate of the US corporate tax rates at the end of 2021? (Currently 21%)”

Market Survey Results 3

 

4) “How much legislation do you expect to be passed in Congress within the next 1-2 years to regulate the tech giants? Specifically, Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook.”

Comment: Everyone seems to have a view here.

Market Survey Results 4

5) “What industry do you work in?”

Over 90% of our responses came from financial industry professionals, 6% from the tech sector, and the rest from others. Winning response was “Flipping Bonds”. Please make yourselves known to a syndicate desk for a bonus new issue allocation.

To summarize: Most survey participants expect the stock market to be higher within 6 months and Treasury bond yields higher (prices lower). Roughly half expect US corporate tax to remain at 21% at the end of 2021, and the other half expect them to go up between 25-29%. Similarly, on tech regulation half of the respondents expect little to significant change, with 10% expecting significant legislation (all within the financial services).