Africa March 3, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Tito’s tenure Emerging Markets, Politics, South Africa Tito Anne Frühauf The 24 February budget has reinforced the importance of keeping Finance Minister Tito Mboweni in his post, but also speculation about his tenure. President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to reshuffle his cabinet soon owning to vacancies.… Read the rest... Read More...
Africa February 25, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: DSSI ‘common framework’ risks facing private creditors Africa, Emerging Markets, Politics Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Ethiopia’s upcoming debt restructuring negotiations will be closely watched by other sovereigns in the region and private creditors alike. While private sector involvement seems very likely, this could take the form of debt reprofiling rather than outright haircuts, particularly... Read More...
Africa February 24, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Tito’s “no austerity” consolidation budget Emerging Markets, Politics, South Africa Anne Frühauf Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s 24 February budget benefits from better-than-expected revenue shortfalls but aims to hold the line on fiscal consolidation over the medium term. Above all, his plan to stabilize South Africa’s public finances will stand or fall by... Read More...
Africa February 18, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Budget preview – short-term gain, long-term pain? Emerging Markets, Politics, South Africa Anne Frühauf Ahead of the 24 February budget, South Africa’s near-term fiscal outlook has improved slightly relative to last October’s disastrous Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). This is primarily thanks to exogenous factors, not because President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has suddenly grasped... Read More...
Africa February 17, 2021 KENYA: IMF deal heralds return to international debt markets Kenya, Politics IMF Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Reforms under Kenya’s three-year USD 2.4bn deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) face political constraints. The Treasury’s fiscal consolidation strategy seems slow but may be gambling on a strong economic recovery and leeway provided by continued pandemic uncertainty.… <a... Read More...
Africa February 16, 2021 NIGERIA: Critical IMF report further dents multilateral loan prospects Emerging Markets, Nigeria, Politics Malte Liewerscheidt The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week published critical and unusually prescriptive assessments of the administration’s macroeconomic policies as part of the annual article IV consultation. Meanwhile, the cabinet raised the medium-term debt ceiling from 25% to 40% of... Read More...
Africa February 11, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Annual address fails to paper over credibility cracks Politics Anne Frühauf President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) on 11 February seemed even more divorced from reality than usual, amid a terrible public health, economic and social backdrop. The long, detail-packed speech is unlikely to address the government’s... Read More...
Africa February 10, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Pandemic downsides abound amid ‘vaccine apartheid’ Emerging Markets, Politics, South Africa vaccines Anne Frühauf Pandemic downsides abound amid ‘vaccine apartheid’ A second Covid-19 surge is putting to the test assumptions that the pandemic’s public health impact across the continent has been comparatively mild. Health crises and on-and-off lockdowns may be a recurring feature... Read More...
Africa March 1, 2021 NIGERIA: Fuel subsidy makes a comeback Emerging Markets, Nigeria, Politics Malte Liewerscheidt On 1 March, the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) announced that domestic fuel prices would remain fixed in March, despite the ongoing oil price rally. Echoing a similar statement in February, today‘s announcement provides the latest indication that... Read More...
Africa February 3, 2021 NIGERIA: Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) about to enter crucial stage Emerging Markets, Nigeria, Politics Malte Liewerscheidt Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) about to enter crucial stage During last week’s public hearings, industry stakeholders voiced various concerns regarding the bill’s investment provisions. Representatives of the oil-producing Niger Delta region meanwhile advocated for a larger revenue share.… <a... Read More...
