report October 21, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt restructuring talk targets private creditors While the G20 advocate for a recalibration of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s pandemic management support, reforms and more comprehensive solutions to debt problems remain a medium-term prospect. Yet in the hardest hit countries, pressure on private creditors to... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report October 21, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Who will be the biggest winner of the municipal elections? The African National Congress (ANC) will likely be the biggest loser of the 1 November municipal elections, but its loss will not be the gain of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). Smaller parties, not only the Economic Freedom... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report October 19, 2021 COTE D’IVOIRE: Gbago’s new party reshuffles Ivorian politics Over the weekend of 16/17 October, former president Laurent Gbagbo (76) officially launched his new African People's Party of Ivory Coast (PPA-CI) in Abidjan. By acclamation, some 1,600 delegates also elected Gbagbo as the party's first president. The new... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report October 7, 2021 NIGERIA: Buhari’s final full-year budget stays true to form On 7 October, President Muhammadu Buhari presented the 2022 appropriation bill to both houses of the national assembly. In some respects, the draft budget builds on last year's tendency of putting forward sensible assumptions on some accounts, while others... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 30, 2021 GUINEA: Miners’ ‘selective review’ risks persist amid transition charter On 27 September, the junta led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya issued a 'transition charter' outlining the guiding principles, institutions, and mechanisms governing the transition phase, which remains without an official end date. Unsurprisingly, the charter confirms the ... ... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 27, 2021 ZAMBIA: A string of positive news President Hakainde Hichilema today, 27 September, announced the return of Denny Kalyalya as governor of the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) with immediate effect. The move puts the BoZ in a safe pair of hands and bodes particularly well for... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 24, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: ANC improves candidate registration but election troubles remain The African National Congress (ANC) appears to have largely closed its self-inflicted candidate registration gap this week, but the party's electoral troubles do not end here. With just under six weeks to go to the 1 November municipal elections,... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 21, 2021 NIGERIA: Goodluck Jonathan’s potential comeback Rumors that former president Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) may soon be defecting from his People's Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) to become the ruling party's flagbearer for the 2023 presidential election may not be unsubstantiated. However,... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 19, 2021 ETHIOPIA: Piling on sanctions pressure US President Joe Biden today, 17 September, signed an executive order authorizing sanctions on Ethiopia. In the first instance, the order is an attempt to force ceasefire negotiations in the 10-month-old Tigray conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 15, 2021 NIGERIA: How FX scarcity, VAT spat point to 2023 As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to clamp down on USD sales in the parallel market, the soaring demand for the greenback in that segment may be fueled by the onset of the political campaigning season. In... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 9, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Stumbling towards the 1 Nov local elections While the Electoral Commission (IEC) should be able to pull off the organization of local elections now set for 1 November, the process threatens to be politically messy and legally contested. Unless the ruling African National Congress (ANC) manages... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 8, 2021 GUINEA: Following coup d’etat, miners face medium-term risks On 5 September, special forces soldiers led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya arrested President Alpha Conde. During a subsequent broadcast on state TV, the putschists announced the suspension of state institutions, the temporary closure of national borders, and a nationwide...... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 1, 2021 Zambia: Hichilema’s honeymoon Freshly inaugurated President Hakainde Hichilema is riding a wave of goodwill. Yet the reform process ahead will undoubtedly be politically painful and administratively challenging; it will be measured by the next budget, IMF talks and debt restructuring efforts. The... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report August 26, 2021 KENYA: Constitutional referendum dead, presidential succession less certain On 20 August, the Court of Appeal upheld a high court ruling declaring several aspects of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) unconstitutional. The ruling represents another blow to President Uhuru Kenyatta's and opposition leader Raila Odinga's plans to amend... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report August 23, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: IMF SDRs – trickle-down or redistribution? The International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) remains inadequate vis-a-vis the region's external financing needs. Yet, the debate on how rich countries can transfer SDRs to countries in greater need has been dragging on... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report August 19, 2021 NIGERIA: As PIB becomes PIA, fuel subsidy will test reform efforts’ seriousness On 18 August, President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated a steering committee to see through the implementation over the next 12 months of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which he had signed into law earlier this week. The quick formation of... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report August 17, 2021 ZAMBIA: Opposition landslide, daunting legacy Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema has won the 12 August presidential election by a landslide, trouncing incumbent President Edgar Lungu by close to 1mn votes. Despite three days of tensions and suggestions that Lungu's side might refuse to accept the... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report August 11, 2021 ETHIOPIA: Towards total war? Following a brief interlude in late June, the Tigray conflict has escalated and broadened, spilling across domestic borders and sucking in combatants from other Ethiopian regions. This intensifies the risk of worst-case scenarios - a spiraling humanitarian crisis, ethnic... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report August 9, 2021 ZAMBIA: High-stakes elections on 12 August General elections will take place on Thursday, 12 August. The recent deployment of the military highlights the risk of electoral violence around the high-stakes polls. As explained previously, the presidential election should be opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema's to lose... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report August 6, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Tito’s departure a blow, replacement may prove acceptable Late on 5 August, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced his long-awaited cabinet reshuffle. The replacement of Finance Minister Tito Mboweni should not have been Ramaphosa's priority, even if his successor, Enoch Godongwana, is a well-known and pragmatic ANC policy heavyweight.... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 30, 2021 GHANA: Promise to stay on target, but fiscal risks loom large On 29 July, Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta presented the mid-year budget review - an annual exercise mandated by law - in parliament. Unlike in previous years, Ofori-Atta did not introduce additional taxes to make up for a revenue shortfall... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report July 30, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Spending for social peace To keep the peace, the government has announced fiscal support for the poor and business in the wake of recent unrest; it has also averted a potentially disruptive public-sector strike by finalizing a wage deal. The government has been... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 28, 2021 ZAMBIA: High-stakes elections The main concern about the 12 August general elections is to what extent they will be free and fair, increasing the risk of electoral violence and disputes. Although the presidential poll should be opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema's to lose,... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 26, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Ripple effects of unrest President Cyril Ramaphosa is under massive pressure to tackle the fallout from nine days of unprecedented unrest and looting by cleaning up the party and cabinet. Although the government's initial security response to the mayhem was too little too... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report July 23, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Third pandemic wave hits hardest Sub-Saharan Africa remains in the grip of a fresh Covid-19 wave stretching health services and forcing some governments to re-impose at least limited restrictions. Following major supply disruption in Q2, the region's vaccine pipeline for the remainder of 2021... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
