report April 8, 2021 CHINA: Calls for Beijing Olympics boycott will put companies in a bind Washington will be reluctant to launch a boycott unless other rich democracies can be counted on to follow suit; this possibility still appears unlikely but cannot be ruled out. Even if a boycott never materializes, foreign companies involved with the games face serious reputati... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report April 8, 2021 RUSSIA/UKRAINE: Renewed war with Ukraine would bring few benefits to Moscow Russia’s saber-rattling near Donbas and Crimea is likely driven by Kyiv’s actions against pro-Kremlin figures/entities in Ukraine, the growing tensions between Moscow and the West as well as domestic pressures within Russia. However, a major escalation of the conflict with Ukrai... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me ... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report April 8, 2021 ECUADOR: A complex horizon for whoever wins presidential run-off Campaigning officially ends tonight, 8 April, ahead of the 11 April presidential run-off vote. The vote comes down to a binary choice between populist leftism in the shape of Andres Arauz, and anti-Correismo, as represented by the conservative Guillermo Lasso. Polarization is acu... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report April 8, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week France - The seven-day ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report April 7, 2021 SOUTH KOREA: Parties look to next year as Moon suffers by-election defeats The opposition People Power Party (PPP) won landslide victories in mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan, as well as other local races, on Wednesday, 7 April. These results mark the first major victories by conservative forces after a wilderness period following the impeachment... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember... By Tobias Harris, Victor Cha Teneo
report April 7, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not hesitate to cont... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report April 7, 2021 PERU: Key considerations ahead of 11 April first round presidential vote The final two polls by Ipsos and IEP ahead of the 11 April first round presidential vote point to an extraordinarily tight race. According to the Ipsos poll undertaken on 31 March, only 3.5 points separate poll leader Yonhy Lescano from fifth-placed Keiko Fujimori. An IEP poll co... Become a member to read the rest of this article... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report April 7, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Is there daylight between Duterte and the military on China? The word war between Philippine and Chinese officials will not result in any immediate increase in risk from the Philippine side. However, the main unknown — and the key variable — is whether the developments of the past two weeks may be signaling a policy gap between President ... Become a member to read the rest of this... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report April 6, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Turkey could introduce new measures against the president's critics. Political fragmentation will define Peru’s upcoming presidential election. In Germany, the race for the Merkel succession is heating up. South Korea’s ruling party could face a political defeat in two mayoral el... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me ... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report April 6, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Peru sees a series of televised debates between the presidential candidates ahead of the 11 April first-round election. In Mexico, energy policy will again be the subject of legal challenges, this time centering on the downstream sector. President Andres Manuel Lopez O... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report April 6, 2021 CHINA: Beijing unlikely to weaponize rare earths exports Foreign governments and companies are worried about China's dominant position in the supply chain for rare earths, which are required for a range of high-tech industries. But China's dominance, which derives from a historic willingness to tolerate pollution rather than from uniq... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report April 6, 2021 GREECE: Growing discontent amid virus gloom and poor handling of the reopening The government is bogged down by persistently high Covid-19 numbers, which have brought intense pressure on the country’s public health system and a slow resumption of economic activity. Athens hopes that a new round of economic relief, faster vaccinations, and a soon-to-be-laun... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report April 6, 2021 TURKEY: Open letter by former officers: A perfect gift for Erdogan An open letter penned by retired military officers has created an ideal opportunity for President Tayyip Erdogan to manipulate the public debate and distract attention away from a long list of negative developments. Leaving aside the framing of public narratives, the risk is tha... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report April 6, 2021 NIGERIA: Tussle over naira devaluation amid grim macroeconomic picture On 5 April, unidentified gunmen attacked the police headquarters and freed some 2,000 inmates from a nearby prison in Owerri, the capital of the south-eastern Imo State. While the government labelled the attack an act of terrorism and ascribed it to the Eastern Security Network (... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report April 5, 2021 EGYPT: Ever Given incident highlights Egypt’s vulnerabilities Ever Given ship accident in the Suez Canal highlights Egypt’s mixed economic picture. Covid-19 effects will continue to cloud economic growth prospects. The grounding of the Ever Given fixed the world’s attention on Egypt for more than a week in mid-March. While the stoppage in... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report April 5, 2021 BULGARIA: Technocratic cabinet or new vote likely after Sunday’s election The ruling Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) won the 4 April parliamentary election but is unlikely to lead the next government. A fragmented parliament and long-standing political rivalries will likely result in a temporary technocratic/minority government or ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me ... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report April 1, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is peaking at different times across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Slovakia has finally exited a month-long government crisis. Ukraine is concerned over escalating fighting in Donbas. In Slovenia, the departure of three deputies from th... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report April 1, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: People's Bank of China calls on global central banks to avoid “dollarization” of digital curren... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report April 1, 2021 COTE D’IVOIRE: Implications of Gbagbo’s pending return On 31 March, the International Criminal Court (ICC) upheld its earlier acquittal of former president Laurent Gbagbo (2000-2010) and his co-defendant and former youth minister Charles Ble Goude. The ruling clears a main hurdle for both defendants to return to Cote d’Ivoire. Nevert... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report April 1, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week France - The seve... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
