report December 7, 2020 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Indonesia and Brazil have received doses of a vaccine made in China. EU leaders will try to overcome vetoes against the bloc’s budget and recovery fund. UK-EU trade talks continue. Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Ghana. Meanwhile, the Japanese governmen... Become a member... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report December 7, 2020 JAPAN: Suga heads into parliamentary recess facing political headwinds Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga heads into a parliamentary recess with his approval ratings having fallen sharply. Suga’s falling approval ratings likely reflect growing disapproval of his handling of Covid-19 and perhaps also the reemergence of a political finance scandal... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 5, 2020 CHINA/AUSTRALIA: Addiction to “wolf warrior” diplomacy risks uniting opposition The sharp deterioration of Sino-Australian relations reflects rising anti-China sentiment in Australia and Beijing's increasingly combative diplomatic approach. Beijing wants to make an example of Australia, sending a message to the world that acting against China's interest... Become... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report December 4, 2020 MEXICO: Romo exit could seal more radical turn President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on 2 December announced that Alfonso Romo, head of the Office of the Presidency, was stepping down. A successful businessman, Romo has been the AMLO administration’s most market-friendly senior official and its main... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 3, 2020 INDONESIA: Potential repercussions of the arrest of fisheries minister The arrest of fisheries minister Edhy Prabowo may weaken Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and endanger his 2024 aspirations. Both President Joko Widodo and Prabowo have an interest in keeping his Gerindra party in the coalition, but Prabowo could still... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report December 3, 2020 GHANA: President Akufo-Addo remains the frontrunner President Nana Akufo-Addo and his New Patriotic Party (NPP) are the frontrunners in the 7 December general elections. While the few reliable polls available all indicate that Akufo-Addo has a strong lead over John Mahama, the presidential candidate of... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report December 3, 2020 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report December 2, 2020 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: New data privacy laws aim to rein... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 2, 2020 SPAIN: Budget almost approved; Catalan elections next The draft budget for 2021 is set to be approved by parliament following the multiple deals reached with several parties by the ruling coalition of the Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos. The key piece in Prime Minister... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report December 2, 2020 TURKEY: Mismanagement of Covid-19 spike set to worsen economic outlook Two policy U-turns in less than a week signal the seriousness of the pandemic outbreak in Turkey. Facing a “perfect storm” as the country’s hospitals are overstretched, medical staff burned out and the contact tracing system overwhelmed, the government... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report December 2, 2020 ROMANIA: General election will strengthen PNL-led government The ruling PNL party is expected to win the 6 December general election despite the government's recent challenges in coping with the second wave of Covid-19. PNL's most likely coalition partners include the liberal USR-PLUS alliance and conservative PMP.... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report December 2, 2020 Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly... By Olivier Desbarres Teneo
report December 1, 2020 ETHIOPIA: Abiy takes Mekelle, but can he win the peace? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has announced what could be game-changing events in the one month-old conflictwith the Tigray regional leadership. Over the weekend, Abiy announced that the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) had taken control of Tigray’s capital Mekelle, though... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report December 1, 2020 INDIA: Federal policies bring farmers to the streets as opposition fans flames The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is struggling to contain protests against a clutch of agricultural reforms introduced earlier this year after thousands of farmers laid siege to New Delhi over the weekend and have... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report December 1, 2020 VENEZUELA: What to expect from 6D legislative elections Elections for the National Assembly (AN) take place on 6 December. The new legislature will be installed on 5 January 2021 for a five-year term. The regime-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) has increased the number of seats from 167... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 1, 2020 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is this week's updated table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report November 30, 2020 JAPAN: Third wave scrambles Suga’s political calculations Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s government has continued to seek a balance between infection control and support for economic recovery even as new Covid-19 cases have surged and hospitalization rates have climbed. Public disapproval of Suga’s handling of the pandemic... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report November 30, 2020 CHILE: Government fights rear-guard action on pensions The political tussle over a second withdrawal from the pension system continues. A second withdrawal is likely to go ahead – with lower house approval possible in the early part of this week. However, recent government manuevers should go some way... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report November 30, 2020 MALAYSIA: Despite PM’s political weakness, an election may not be imminent Since March, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s precarious stance within his own ruling National Alliance (PN) has been generating constant speculation as to when — not if — early elections could be held. Two factors now appear to be making... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report November 30, 2020 NIGERIA: Massacre attributed to Boko Haram does not alter strategic outlook On 28 November, at least 110 civilians have reportedly been killed by armed men in a village close to Maiduguri, the capital of north-eastern Borno state. The style of the attack, which was apparently carried out by a group... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo