Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in economic activity and of course extremely “favourable” base effects.… Read the rest
The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.… Read the rest
The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required.
The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1 2020, far more than in China (+0.6%) and South Korea (-4.6%).… Read the rest
Olivier Desbarres is a Director and the Founder of 4X Global Research.
He worked for 15 years as a senior Economist, Rates and FX strategist for Credit Suisse and Barclays in Moscow, London and Singapore.
Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments.… Read the rest
Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via a vast array of measures, including a furlough scheme, to support household disposable incomes and ultimately consumption and GDP growth.… Read the rest
Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going forward.… Read the rest
Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major economies accounting for close to 90% of world GDP.… Read the rest
Financial-market post-mortems for 2019 are out and the bottom line is that the trade was to be long pretty much everything – including US and global equities, bonds and commodities (bar natural gas) – but short equity and FX volatility.… Read the rest
