report December 11, 2020 INDONESIA: Another cabinet minister falls to anti-corruption drive The recent high-profile arrests of two cabinet ministers for corruption delivers several near-term benefits.However, only time will tell if these developments reflect real institutional momentum or are more of a public relations effort.The arrest of a minister from the... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report December 11, 2020 ARGENTINA: Understanding CFK’s political aloofness Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK)’s latest open letter published on 9 December is another reminder that her over-riding objective is the pursuit of legal impunity for herself and her children. It also points to a political strategy akin to a... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 11, 2020 TURKEY: (Toothless) EU and US sanctions next Due to a toxic mix of over-ambitious policy objectives, aggressive nationalism, and colossal policy miscalculations, Turkey is set to reach a rather peculiar, if not unique, record: becoming a country that has been officially sanctioned by Russia, the US,... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report December 11, 2020 CHINA: Achieving zero-carbon goal requires overcoming entrenched coal interests President Xi Jinping pledged that China's carbon emissions would peak by 2030 and decline to net zero by 2060. Achieving the ambitious 2060 goal will require a mix of market-oriented reforms in the power sector and administrative tightening to... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report December 10, 2020 GHANA: President’s narrow victory raises specter of legal challenge In the evening of 9 December, the Electoral Commission of Ghana (EC) declared President Nana Akufo-Addo the winner of Monday’s presidential election with 51.3% of valid votes cast, against 47.4% cast in favor of his main opponent John Mahama... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report December 10, 2020 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Following the 6 December general election in Romania, three center-right parties are starting talks on forming a new coalition government. Tensions in Poland’s United Right coalition government are running high amid the ongoing negotiations on linking the EU budget to the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report December 10, 2020 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. US/CHINA/CANADA: US prosecutors considering deal to release Huawei... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 10, 2020 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report December 9, 2020 ZAMBIA: How much hope for an IMF program? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today, 9 December, that it “will be assessing in the coming weeks how the IMF could support the authorities’ reform efforts through a possible Fund program.” Zambia’s request was widely expected, but the... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report December 9, 2020 EU: Towards overcoming the Polish and Hungarian budget vetoes The German EU Council presidency appears to have reached an agreement with Poland and Hungary that should allow passage of the bloc’s macro budget and the pandemic recovery fund when heads of state or government meet on 10-11 December.... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report December 9, 2020 PERU: No honeymoon for Sagasti amid unsettled outlook President Francisco Sagasti has had a difficult few days. The political afterglow that might normally follow from a successful cabinet endorsement vote in Congress never materialized. Not only was Sagasti forced to drop his pick for interior minister to... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 8, 2020 SOUTH AFRICA: Another ANC fudge or the beginning of Ace’s end? While today brought slightly better-than-expected news on the economic front – with Q3 GDP growing at 13.5% q-o-q following the disastrous lockdown-related contraction of 16.6% in Q2 – on the political front an upside is not yet clear. Concluding... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report December 8, 2020 JAPAN: Suga puts his stamp on economic policy in new stimulus package The Suga administration has unveiled a new stimulus package, the third stimulus package to counter the impact of Covid-19. While the new stimulus package is smaller than the first two, it includes a significant sum of money aimed at... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report December 8, 2020 CHINA: Poised to dominate vaccine provision for the developing world in 2021 With the US and Europe prioritizing vaccine access for their own citizens, China could be the main source of vaccines for the developing world through at least early 2021.China's success in controlling Covid-19 through aggressive test-and-trace policies increases Beijing's... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report December 8, 2020 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19Below is this week's updated table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report December 8, 2020 GREECE: Struggling with the pandemic; betting on the EU recovery fund The government has labored with the second Covid-19 wave after being praised for its sure-footed approach earlier in the pandemic crisis. Nevertheless, this has not yet had a significant impact on New Democracy’s opinion poll ratings. Athens submitted its... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report December 8, 2020 INDONESIA: The challenges for the new sovereign wealth fund On Sunday, the Indonesian government announced that it had secured a USD 4bn pledge from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation for its soon-to-be-formed sovereign wealth fund, the Nusantara Investment Authority (NIA). The amount is on top of a... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report December 8, 2020 UK/EU: High-level meeting could kick the can further down the road The upcoming meeting between PM Boris Johnson and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen might be what is needed to finally get a trade deal signed off – or at least to prevent a collapse of the negotiations ahead... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report December 7, 2020 LATAM PULSE This week, Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido needs to re-legitimize his position even if it is clear that yesterday’s legislative elections were a sham. In Peru, interim President Francisco Sagasti’s in-tray already looks full. Argentina’s talks with the International... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report December 7, 2020 ROMANIA: PNL set to remain in power despite PSD’s victory Even though the opposition center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) won the 6 December parliamentary election, the ruling National Liberal Party (PNL) will lead the formation of the new government. Given the ongoing public health pressures and a busy policy... By Andrius Tursa Teneo