report January 21, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report January 21, 2021 MACRO: Geopolitical implications of the new US administration This piece provides an overview of the global geopolitical implications of the administration of US President Joe Biden. As always, please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the issues mentioned in more... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 21, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our EM Covid-19 vaccination table includes information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 20, 2021 KOREAN PENINSULA: Biden will likely face early challenge from North Korea Kim Jong Un, speaking on the final day of the eighth congress of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party on 12 January, warned, “We must further strengthen the nuclear war deterrent while doing our best to build up the most... By Tobias Harris, Victor Cha Teneo
report January 20, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our EM Covid-19 vaccination table includes information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 20, 2021 US/CHINA: Last-minute Trump actions leave Biden with tough choices The Trump administration announced a flurry of coercive policies against China in its final days, in an apparent effort to lock the Biden administration into a confrontational stance. This note lists the recent actions – several of which were... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report January 20, 2021 GREECE: Lockdown relaxed amid growing concerns about toll on the economy A gradual relaxation of lockdown restrictions is underway as Athens is considering further support for businesses. Despite increasing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the pandemic, the ruling ND is still far ahead of its main rival in opinion... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 20, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 19, 2021 JAPAN: Suga, under fire as Diet reopens, seeks new powers to combat pandemic The ordinary session of the Diet opened on Monday, 18 January, as the Suga administration tries to contain the still-widening third wave of Covid-19. His approval ratings plummeting, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is trying to reverse the impression that... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report January 19, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, the public health situation in Brazil’s Amazonas state will remain a sensitive issue, while upcoming congressional leadership elections are stoking another debate about President Jair Bolsonaro’s possible impeachment. In Mexico, the fallout from the exoneration of a... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 19, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China is fighting the worst Covid-19 outbreak since March 2020. Italy’s Prime Minister faces a tougher test in the Senate after winning a confidence vote in the lower house. In Germany, Armin Laschet is expected to be confirmed as... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report January 19, 2021 CHILE: Latest developments in presidential race There have been some important developments in the race for the presidency over the past month. The first round of the presidential election takes place on 21 November, with a run-off vote scheduled for 19 December. Before then, in... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 19, 2021 VIETNAM: Central Committee has chosen the next set of leaders The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) 's central committee ended its meeting Sunday with reports that the leadership composition for the next five years has been decided. The initial — but unofficial — news from Hanoi is that CPV... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report January 19, 2021 ITALY: Conte likely to battle on Abstentions (including from Italia Viva’s senators) in today’s crucial vote in the Senate will likely mean that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will secure enough support (157-158 votes) to stay in power. However, the government will fall short of an... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 18, 2021 ITALY: Minority government next? Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte faces two key confidence votes in parliament this week as his political survival hangs by a few ballots. Following the exit of Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva (IV) from the coalition, the PM informed President Sergio... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report January 18, 2021 Argentina: What if There is No Agreement with the Fund? For a long time, our baseline scenario has been that Argentina reaches an agreement with the International Monetary Fund around March or April. Today the chances that this agreement is delayed until 2022 or at least until the legislative... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel Zielonka, Rafael Aguilar Teneo
report January 17, 2021 INDIA: Vaccination drive kicks off amid economic and political challenges 16 January will see the first phase of inoculation of 300 mn frontline Covid-19 fighters. Vaccines will likely be available to those who want to jump the queue – but at a cost – in a few weeks. As... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report January 15, 2021 NETHERLANDS: Rutte’s resignation may work out politically Some two months ahead of the 15 March general election, the government of PM Mark Rutte has collectively resigned over a childcare benefits scandal. Rutte and his cabinet will continue to serve as caretakers until a new government has... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report January 14, 2021 CUBA/VENEZUELA: What lies ahead under a Biden presidency Cuba and Venezuela rank among the more difficult challenges facing incoming US President Joe Biden in Latin America. US domestic political factors go some way to explaining why policy shifts are most likely to be incremental. There is greater... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report January 14, 2021 CHINA: New virus outbreak threatens economic recovery and vaccine diplomacy China is suffering its worst Covid-19 outbreak since July, prompting authorities to re-impose lockdowns in several regions and threatening to derail the recovery of consumer spending. Though authorities are likely to succeed in containing the latest outbreak, in a... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo