report February 17, 2021 UK/EU: Commission’s vaccine fiasco has repercussions for Irish protocol talks As talks continue about the implementation of the Brexit deal's Northern Ireland protocol, partial extensions to the current grace period are the most likely outcome beyond 1 April. The grace period currently still limits the degree to which the... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report February 17, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 16, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The US and UK governments have criticized China for allegedly interfering in the WHO investigation into the origins of Covid-19. Italy’s new PM will appear before parliament this week to present his program. Meanwhile, India’s farmers continue to protest... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 16, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Ecuador’s electoral tensions will continue after the conservative former banker Guillermo Lasso reached a run-off vote by the narrowest of margins. Controversial electricity sector reforms in Mexico will go to a lower house vote. In Brazil, political... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 16, 2021 NIGERIA: Critical IMF report further dents multilateral loan prospects The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week published critical and unusually prescriptive assessments of the administration’s macroeconomic policies as part of the annual article IV consultation. Meanwhile, the cabinet raised the medium-term debt ceiling from 25% to 40% of... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report February 16, 2021 MYANMAR: Government crackdown could still intensify In its first press conference since taking power two weeks ago, the military today, 16 February, promised to hold elections and to hand over power to the winning party. However, the assurance will do little to ease political tensions.... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 16, 2021 PERU: Election uncertainty intensifies amid vaccine scandal While public attention may be focused on a scandal over the secret application of Covid-19 vaccines to several hundred government officials, the presidential election campaign proceeds amid heightened uncertainty over the outcome. The latest Ipsos poll carried out late... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 15, 2021 SPAIN: Sanchez the biggest winner after Catalan election The Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) is poised to lead the next Catalan government despite the victory of the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) in the 14 February regional poll. An ERC-led government is less likely to push for... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report February 15, 2021 SLOVENIA: Jansa likely to survive no-confidence vote The center-right coalition government led by Prime Minister Janez Jansa (Slovenian Democratic Party, SDS) will likely survive the motion of no confidence scheduled for 15 February. The vote’s outcome will increase the probability of the SDS-led cabinet lasting until... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 12, 2021 JAPAN: Mori will resign but controversy will hurt Suga Yoshiro Mori, former prime minister and president of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics organizing committee, indicated on Thursday, 11 February, that he would step down amidst a growing backlash to sexist remarks about the role of women in meetings. Mori... By Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 12, 2021 INDONESIA: Draft regulation could result in a significant drop in severance pay The Indonesian government is set to soon issue a regulation — possibly even by next week — that would cover the use of short-term labor contracts and may, based on the drafts available so far, result in significant reductions... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 12, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: High-level rebuke of energy agency may signal... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 11, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Annual address fails to paper over credibility cracks President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) on 11 February seemed even more divorced from reality than usual, amid a terrible public health, economic and social backdrop. The long, detail-packed speech is unlikely to address the government’s... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report February 11, 2021 US/CHINA: Biden-Xi call suggests possibilities for progress US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call on 10 February, the first direct contact between the US and Chinese heads of state since March 2020. As with last week's call between Secretary of... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report February 11, 2021 BRAZIL: Congress flexing muscles as “imperative” emergency assistance stalls As foreseen, both pro-government candidates won the presiding posts in the House and the Senate on 1 February on the basis of pork and patronage. The risk of impeachment has decreased accordingly but both new House Speaker Arthur Lira... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report February 11, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Belarus plans to hold a referendum on a new constitution in early 2022. In Poland, a split in the junior coalition party, Agreement, threatens a parliamentary majority of the United Right government, which is under pressure to drop the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 11, 2021 COLOMBIA: Another tax reform edges into view amid risk of ratings downgrade President Ivan Duque on 8 February announced that a tax reform – the third of his presidency – would be presented in the next legislative period, which runs from March to June. While the need for fiscal reforms is... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 11, 2021 THAILAND: Protests return for 2021, but with still no endgame in sight After nearly two months, protests have restarted. Health concerns may limit the size and frequency of rallies in the near term. The main question remains the ability of the protest movement to broaden its base. Protesters have... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 10, 2021 CEE: 17+1 summit reaffirms dwindling appeal of Chinese investment Enthusiasm for the 17+1 cooperation format with China is waning among the EU members in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due to unfulfilled investment pledges, and rising concerns over security and geopolitical pressures. As a result, Beijing will likely... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 10, 2021 GREECE: Struggling with crisis management The government is increasingly struggling to maintain an image of competence and sensible management of the public health emergency. Meanwhile, the budget is off track after just the first month of the year due to the escalating costs of... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo