report March 3, 2021 FRANCE: The Le Pen risk – Part I: Electoral politics With around a year to go to the 2022 presidential election, concerns are rising that Marine Le Pen might have a good shot at taking power. This piece provides a (very early) assessment of Le Pen's electoral chances and... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report March 3, 2021 MENA: Saudi-US relations under the spotlight The US intelligence community assessment on the Khashoggi assassination is not as damaging as feared. Biden’s strategy is not to downgrade the relationship, but instead to make it conditions-based. Congressional pressure is likely to grow to punish those involved... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report March 3, 2021 MYANMAR: Political crossroads ahead, with the risk of more violence The demonstrations are frustrating the junta’s attempts to gain legitimacy. Both sides remain entrenched in their positions, which limits the possibility of a political compromise anytime soon. In several scenarios, the economic fallout would be severe. The level... ... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report March 2, 2021 CHINA: National People’s Congress will signal ambition to surpass US economy China's annual parliament session convenes on 5 March to set economic targets for 2021 and to approve the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and the Long-Range Objectives Through 2035. The 2035 targets reflect China's ambition to surpass the US as... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report March 2, 2021 ZAMBIA: Might Zambia finally clinch an IMF deal? Three weeks of talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are due to conclude on 3 March. Since Zambia plans to seek debt treatment under the G20’s ‘Common Framework for Debt Treatment beyond the DSSI,’ the latest talks might... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report March 2, 2021 ECUADOR: Electoral tussle drags on as IMF deal frays Officially, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition – whose leader in the shadows is former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) – and Guillermo Lasso of the center-right Creating Opportunities (CREO) party will contest a run-off presidential... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report March 2, 2021 ITALY: Still waiting for a change of gear in the fight against Covid-19 Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government on 2 March was putting the final touches to a decree with a new regime of Covid-19 restrictions that is expected to be in force from next weekend until 6 April, the day after... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report March 2, 2021 GERMANY: Regional elections will heat up Merkel succession race Ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 3 March meeting with the 16 regional state leaders, lockdown fatigue and popular disgruntlement are growing, given the vaccine fiasco. Coordination problems are being exacerbated by two key regional state elections looming on 14... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report March 2, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report March 1, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Brazil debates emergency spending, while another state-controlled entity faces a sudden leadership change. Meanwhile in Ecuador, there is as yet no resolution to the electoral impasse. Argentina’s new congressional session gets underway with the government on the... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report March 1, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS In Italy, new Covid restrictions are expected. Ecuador’s presidential election vote recount is being challenged. Talks between Zambia’s government and the IMF end this week. Meanwhile, the UN has criticized China’s human rights record, in the UKthe chancellor will... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report March 1, 2021 NIGERIA: Fuel subsidy makes a comeback On 1 March, the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) announced that domestic fuel prices would remain fixed in March, despite the ongoing oil price rally. Echoing a similar statement in February, today‘s announcement provides the latest indication that... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report February 26, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. CHINA: New bank regulations will trim scale of... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 25, 2021 US/CHINA: Biden caught between business community and national security hawks The US business community has mobilized in recent weeks to press the Biden administration for a less confrontational approach to China, including easing of tariffs and export controls. The broad principles for balancing economic and national security considerations that... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report February 25, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Multiple countries in CEE are experiencing a surge in Covid-19 cases, which is mostly associated with the spread of new virus mutations. The Czech Republic is considering a significant tightening of measures, while Bulgaria’s government – likely driven by... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 25, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: DSSI ‘common framework’ risks facing private creditors Ethiopia’s upcoming debt restructuring negotiations will be closely watched by other sovereigns in the region and private creditors alike. While private sector involvement seems very likely, this could take the form of debt reprofiling rather than outright haircuts, particularly... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report February 25, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Vaccination outlook for H1 2021 Indonesia leads the larger countries in confirmed vaccine supplies, both on absolute terms and as a percentage of its vaccination targets, for the next few months.The rest of the region promises a catch-up but vaccine deliveries in March and... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 24, 2021 BRAZIL: Pragmatism threatened by Petrobras turmoil, but quickly restored President Jair Bolsonaro will talk the talk on ideological platforms but reelection in 2022 calls for pragmatism. There is increasingly little room for far-right policymaking. Stress with the arrest of a Bolsonarista congressman shows the limits of Bolsonaro’s capaci...... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report February 24, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Tito’s “no austerity” consolidation budget Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s 24 February budget benefits from better-than-expected revenue shortfalls but aims to hold the line on fiscal consolidation over the medium term. Above all, his plan to stabilize South Africa’s public finances will stand or fall... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report February 24, 2021 ARGENTINA: Scandal over “VIP vaccines” has government worried President Alberto Fernandez continues to fight a rearguard action to limit the political fallout from last week’s revelations about a group of officials, government allies, and the well-connected who secretly received Covid-19 vaccines in violation of eligibility rules. The... By Nicholas Watson Teneo