report March 15, 2021 SPAIN: Implications of Iglesias’s departure Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias announced on 15 March that he would resign as Vice Prime Minister to run in the regional election that will take place in Madrid on 4 May. His departure is unlikely to threaten the... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report March 15, 2021 COTE D’IVOIRE: Succession uncertainty by design Prime Minister Hamed Bakayoko’s death from cancer last week leaves his successor Patrick Achi in pole position to take up the reins from President Alassane Ouattara by 2025. However, the succession debate has only just begun and leaves enough... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report March 15, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, energy policy is likely to be under the spotlight in Mexico. Meanwhile, Brazil will recommence some emergency spending as pressure builds to replace the current health minister. Ecuador’s run-off presidential campaign gets under way with a debate... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report March 15, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS US top officials will meet their counterparts from several countries across Asia. The outcome of Japan’s central bank policy review will be announced. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel’s party has suffered defeats in two regional polls. The campaign for the... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report March 14, 2021 GERMANY: A dismal start to the election year for Merkel’s CDU The results of tonight’s regional polls represent a challenging start to this election year for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU). Noise and nervousness could increase over the coming days and weeks, as the Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) will try... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report March 12, 2021 PHILIPPINES: All the noise that’s fit to print Speculation about the possible administration nominee to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte has increased, including his daughter, Sara, and top aide, Senator Lawrence Go. Funding, shifting survey numbers and alliance building make it difficult to disregard the names bein... ... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report March 12, 2021 TURKEY: Long on aspirations, short on reforms President Tayyip Erdogan failed today (12 March) to make good on his long-standing pledge of economic reforms that would help Turkey to move to a new economic era. In his 65-minute long speech, Erdogan talked mostly about preferable economic... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report March 12, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. HONG KONG: China's legislature imposes electoral reforms to... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report March 11, 2021 UK/EU: Arbitration threats do not have to mean the end of Irish protocol Given the ongoing tensions over Northern Ireland, the European Commission is now preparing for both legal action against and renewed political talks with the UK. This follows the UK’s decision to unilaterally prolong the grace periods on the introduction... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report March 11, 2021 TANZANIA: Magufuli missing in action Speculation is mounting about the health of President John Magufuli, who has not been seen in public since late February. Opposition leader Tundu Lissu today, 11 March, claimed that Magufuli is receiving medical treatment in India, but for now... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report March 11, 2021 SPAIN: National consequences of regional political earthquake Ciudadanos' decision to file a motion of no confidence against the People's Party (PP)-led government in the Murcia region on 10 March has triggered political ripples across the country. Shortly after the move, Madrid region President Isabel Diaz Ayuso... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report March 11, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report March 11, 2021 CHINA: 3 takeaways from the National People’s Congress and 14th Five Year Plan China's annual parliament session sent a clear signal that GDP growth is no longer the leadership's top priority. The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) focuses on indigenous innovation capacity and protecting China's role in global supply chains. The five-year plan's... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report March 11, 2021 THAILAND: Protests have lost some momentum, but a write-off would be premature Protests restarted in mid-February, but their frequency and size in the month since then have fallen well short of those last year, easing the immediate pressure on the government. The sentiments that strongly drove the demonstrations persist, but coordination... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report March 10, 2021 GHANA: Scramble for majorities set to continue amid bullish government outlook President Nana Akufo-Addo has presented a bullish post-pandemic recovery plan. The main domestic downside risks stem from overly optimistic revenue expectations and unresolved power sector debt. Meanwhile, despite the dismissal of a legal challenge to the presidentia... Become... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report March 10, 2021 PERU: Vaccine politics intensifies The Sinopharm vaccine is currently at the center of a controversy that has implications for both Peru’s vaccine campaign and the presidential election race. The controversy On 5 March, the local Willax TV channel broadcast a program examining a... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report March 10, 2021 FRANCE: The Le Pen risk – Part II: Not-so-moderate policy Following last week's piece on Marine Le Pen's electoral chances, this note covers the policy risks attached to a potential victory of the far-right politician. Although little is known about Le Pen's policy platform, the National Rally (RN) leader... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report March 10, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The resurging pandemic presents the greatest challenge for governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While Russia is one exception from this negative trend, its slow vaccination campaign and removal of most Covid-19-related restrictions leave the door open for... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report March 10, 2021 BRAZIL: Lula’s return is a threat to both Bolsonaro and centrists The Supreme Court decision to annul all cases against former President Lula could turn him into the strongest presidential candidate in 2022. The rapporteur of Lava-Jato in the Supreme Court attempted to preserve the operation by limiting the scope... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report March 9, 2021 JAPAN: Challenging agenda awaits as Diet considers digital agency legislation On Tuesday, 9 March, the House of Representatives began deliberations on a government legislative package to create a digital affairs agency, one of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s top priorities upon becoming prime minister last year. After the pandemic revealed... By Tobias Harris Teneo