report June 23, 2021 GERMANY: A manifesto for the country’s last catch-all party Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) has presented its manifesto, the cabinet has officially adopted the 2022 budget and the fiscal outlook until 2025, and the Bundestag is concluding its final session in this legislative period. With this week's... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report June 23, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 22, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Peru's post-vote lack of political clarity drags on even as Keiko Fujimori increasingly appears to be fighting a hopeless battle to block Pedro Castillo from being declared winner of the 6 June vote. Meanwhile, there will be... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report June 22, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The European Commission will endorse Italy's post-pandemic recovery plan. Peru's presidential election results are still being reviewed. The EU will agree sanctions against Belarus. Meanwhile, the pandemic is worsening in Indonesia, Germany's cabinet will agree on its budget, ant...... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 21, 2021 FRANCE: The inconsequential regional elections With a record-low turnout of 32%, the first round of the regional and departmental elections on 20 June should not be considered a bellwether of next year's presidential contest. The poor showing of President Emmanuel Macron's Republic on the... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report June 17, 2021 BRAZIL: The political Center seeks an unlikely united front The announcement by TV presenter Luciano Huck on 16 June that he will not run for president in October 2022 prompted an immediate reaction from the political Center. Huck, who had toyed with the idea since before the last... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report June 17, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: 2021 & 2022 Elections, Political Risk & Reform Outlook Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 15 months. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 17, 2021 ARMENIA: Opposition victory in Sunday’s vote could destabilize Nagorno-Karabakh Early parliamentary elections on 20 June amount to a referendum on which political party can avenge the losses suffered during a six-week war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in autumn 2020. The vote will see a tight battle between the... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report June 17, 2021 ETHIOPIA: What to expect from the 21 June elections Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party (PP) is widely expected to win the 21 June elections at the parliamentary level and in all the participating regional legislatures. However, the elections will only be partially conducted amid conflict and violence,... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report June 17, 2021 PHILIPPINES/CHINA: Manila escalates response to Beijing’s maritime activities Philippine naval activity in disputed South China Sea waters increased more than seven-fold in recent months. President Roderigo Duterte appears to have yielded to pressure from the military establishment to push back more strongly against Chinese military activities in... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report June 17, 2021 MALAYSIA: A fight over the meaning of ASAP On 16 June, Malaysian King Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah called on parliament, whose sessions have been suspended since January, to reconvene "secepat mungkin" (as soon as possible) to discuss the country's state of emergency and recovery plan. He issued... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report June 17, 2021 PERU: Fujimori’s last stand The vote count following the 6 June presidential run-off concluded on 15 June. Pedro Castillo won 50.12% of the vote, while his rival Keiko Fujimori obtained 49.87%. This amounts to a difference of just over 44,000 votes out of... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report June 17, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report June 17, 2021 UK/EU: An extension to calm the sausage row? Ahead of the end-June deadline, another extension to the grace period for British chilled meat exports to Northern Ireland is likely. The question is how this will be achieved: by agreement or via unilateral UK action, to which the... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report June 16, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Countries to watch in the next few weeks Indonesia's expected post-Idul Fitri spike has arrived, with targeted local restrictions being enforced until 28 June. Forced to bear the political backlash from slow vaccine deliveries, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha promises to fully reopen Thailand in 120 days. Dispersed... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report June 16, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Russia is reimposing restrictions as new Covid-19 infections surge across the country. In Poland, the opposition-backed candidate's victory in local elections in the city of Rzeszow highlights the importance of cooperation for both the opposition and the governing coalition.... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report June 15, 2021 KENYA: Modest budget, but downside risks loom large The budget presented to parliament last week appears modest, given that 2022 is an election year. However, the proposal carries considerable downside risks on both the revenue and expenditure fronts. If these materialize, Kenya may be forced to request... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report June 15, 2021 VENEZUELA: Signs of opposition gear change but fundamental obstacles persist The opposition to the regime could be on the brink of a cyclical rebound to electoral participation and engagement. Gubernatorial, mayoral, and municipal elections scheduled for November will be the focus of political competition for the rest of 2021.... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report June 15, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 15, 2021 RUSSIA/US: Putin-Biden summit – an attempt to set framework for future ties A summit between the US and Russian presidents on 16 June in Geneva is unlikely to bring any breakthroughs in bilateral relations, but symbolic confidence re-building agreements are possible. In general, the summit aims to refresh personal ties between... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
