report October 8, 2021 JAPAN: Kishida, Abe, and the quid pro quo The first set of public opinion polls show only lukewarm support for new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration, and a large majority does not favor his economic plans. Even so, the Hallowe'en Lower House election won't turn into a... By James Brady Teneo
report October 8, 2021 GERMANY: “Traffic light” perspectives for European and fiscal issues The preparatory talks of recent days have led to the launch of exploratory negotiations for a "traffic light" coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) with the Greens and the center-right Liberals (FDP). These are still not detailed coalition talks;... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 8, 2021 BRAZIL: Tax reform surfaces amid legislative profligacy President Jair Bolsonaro has been uncommonly discreet since his official apology to other branches of government for his frequent attacks against them two days after the pro-government protests on Independence Day, 7 September. Congress was already distancing itself from... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report October 7, 2021 CHINA/TAIWAN/US: PLA flyovers are about deterrence not invasion China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) set three consecutive daily records for aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on 2-4 October. The PLA incursions continue a long-term trend of increasing naval and air force activity near Taiwan... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 7, 2021 NIGERIA: Buhari’s final full-year budget stays true to form On 7 October, President Muhammadu Buhari presented the 2022 appropriation bill to both houses of the national assembly. In some respects, the draft budget builds on last year's tendency of putting forward sensible assumptions on some accounts, while others... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report October 7, 2021 PERU: Cliff edge avoided, but governability and moderation may still be elusive President Pedro Castillo made seven changes to his cabinet yesterday, 6 October. The reshuffle promotes more moderate leftists largely at the expense of ministers who answer to the Peru Libre (PL) party boss Vladimir Cerron. The highly controversial Prime... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 7, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 6, 2021 ITALY: A noisier political backdrop but Draghi won’t lose much sleep over it The main takeaway from the 3-4 October local elections is that the outcome will not cause any major problem to Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government. The former ECB chairman, who enjoys approval ratings close to 70%, remains unchallenged. Draghi's... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 6, 2021 PHILIPPINES: As Marcos Jr. enters the race, the wait for Duterte continues The 2022 picture will remain incomplete until Sara Duterte clarifies her intentions. The outlook for the presidential contest has changed since our initial assessments in the spring -- a wide open race is now a greater possibility, especially if... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 6, 2021 SPAIN: Ruling coalition stronger than it looks As expected, the Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and far-left Unidas Podemos reached an agreement on the draft 2022 budget on 5 October, which the government is expected to approve and send to the Congress of Deputies (lower chamber) in... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report October 5, 2021 US/CHINA: Biden’s new China trade strategy sidesteps tough questions US Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai announced that the Biden administration will relaunch the exclusion process for Trump-era trade war tariffs and restart trade talks with Beijing. But Tai did not commit to any rollback of Trump-era tariffs, nor... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 5, 2021 CHILE: Presidential race under shadow of constitutional debate While the recent leak of financial records ("Pandora Papers") continues to affect President Sebastian Pinera - and by extension the center-right presidential candidate Sebastian Sichel - Chile's constitutional debate has deeper implications. Holding presidential and legislative e... Become... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 4, 2021 JAPAN: New PM Kishida calls 31 October election New Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called the Lower House election for 31 October, in a move designed to capitalize on his initial poll bounce and the current low Covid-19 case numbers. The new cabinet sees both continuity and... By James Brady Teneo
report October 4, 2021 CZECH REPUBLIC: ANO set to win, but government formation could get complicated The ruling Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) is set to win the elections to the Chamber of Deputies and get a first chance at forming the next cabinet. ANO's prospects of securing a majority in parliament depend largely on... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 4, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Mexico's electricity sector counter-reforms are in the legislature, where they could muffle recent speculation about the battle to eventually succeed President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Political tensions in Peru are rising. In Ecuador, talks between the... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 4, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The US trade representative will outline Washington's approach to China trade. Fumio Kishida is Japan's 100th prime minister. Exploratory coalition talks could officially begin in Germany. Meanwhile, candidate registration will end in the Philippines, lower house elections will b...... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report October 3, 2021 ITALY: Local elections – key issues In Prime Minister Mario Draghi's Italy, administrative elections will have no meaningful impact on the government. The lack of political leaders means that Draghi remains unchallenged. The elections will confirm that League's Matteo Salvini risks becoming a spent political... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 1, 2021 INDONESIA: Widodo wins parliamentary approval for tax changes Parliament's Commission XI on Finance this week approved substantial changes to the country's tax laws, with formal passage of the Bill on Harmonizing Tax Regulations expected next week. The most important part of the legislation in the near term... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 1, 2021 CHINA: Power shortages reflect price controls, “campaign-style” climate efforts The combination of surging coal prices and inflexible, government-controlled electricity prices has imposed financial losses on coal-fired power plants, prompting them to cut production. Political pressure on provincial governments to meet ambitious targets on cutting carbon emi... Become... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 1, 2021 INDIA: Foreign e-retailing companies face legal pushback Charges that Amazon might have bribed officials have prompted demands that the government probes the company's operations in India. The challenges posed by e-commerce to the survival of small stores are viewed sympathetically by the government. The urge to... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
