report October 25, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Voters in Japan will go to the polls. Turkey is heading for a major confrontation with its allies. A Senate report requests the indictment of Brazil's president. The UK chancellor will present his autumn budget. South Africa is gearing... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report October 25, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan’s pyrrhic victory? Even though the meeting of the Turkish cabinet is still ongoing (a press conference is expected at around 7pm local time), it seems that President Tayyip Erdogan will not follow through on his previous threat to declare ten Western... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 24, 2021 TURKEY: Expulsion of ten ambassadors not a given despite Erdogan’s threat President Tayyip Erdogan stated on 23 October that he ordered to declare "persona non grata" the ambassadors of ten Western allies for seeking philanthropist Osman Kavala's release from prison. Erdogan made these remarks during a rally in the western... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 21, 2021 BRAZIL: Pandemic report less harmful than the economy for Bolsonaro The 1,178-page report presented on 20 October by the rapporteur of the Senate inquiry (CPI) into the pandemic, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL), is unprecedented. Indictments were requested for more than 65 people in relation to 12 crimes. At the top... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report October 21, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Debt restructuring talk targets private creditors While the G20 advocate for a recalibration of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s pandemic management support, reforms and more comprehensive solutions to debt problems remain a medium-term prospect. Yet in the hardest hit countries, pressure on private creditors to... By Anne Frühauf, Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report October 21, 2021 CHINA: Power shortages lead to durable market reforms Severe power rationing has led to significant long-term reforms to China's electricity pricing system that go beyond emergency stop-gap measures. Under the new system, coal-powered generators can pass on higher coal prices to electricity users; the changes also force... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 21, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Who will be the biggest winner of the municipal elections? The African National Congress (ANC) will likely be the biggest loser of the 1 November municipal elections, but its loss will not be the gain of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). Smaller parties, not only the Economic Freedom... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report October 21, 2021 CEE: Economic and political challenges resurface with pandemic resurgence Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling to cope with the resurging pandemic amid low vaccination rates and widespread prevalence of the Delta strain. The inevitable return of tough restrictions will hamper economic recovery and could delay... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 21, 2021 Sri Lanka: Facing an economic crisis – but IMF is not an option (for now) Low revenue from tourism, plummeting foreign remittances and legacy debts from the sovereign bond market are pushing Sri Lanka in the general direction of default This is exacerbated by errors in the island's tea-production strategy However, help from multilateral... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report October 21, 2021 GERMANY: Weidmann’s resignation and the euro dilemma of the political right Regardless of who gets to succeed Jens Weidmann as Bundesbank president, it is important to recall that even conservative policymakers like him have not stopped the ECB's unconventional approach. In contrast with previous resignations, Weidmann did not step down... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 21, 2021 MYANMAR: What ASEAN’s exclusion of the junta means In an uncharacteristic rebuke, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week barred coup and junta leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing -- chair of the junta's State Administration Council (SAC) and the "interim prime minister" -- from attending... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 21, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 20, 2021 LATAM: Pandemic status and outlook Covid-19 caseloads have been dropping across Latin America and the Caribbean in recent weeks. During October, South America has accounted for under 6% of new global daily cases versus 35-40% in June. The improving picture is encouraging but there... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 20, 2021 JAPAN: TINA, turnout, and structural advantages make LDP the best electoral bet Mistrust of the opposition, down-trending turnouts, and structural advantages in the electoral system all help make the LDP a safe bet in the 31 October general election. Opposition parties' hopes depend on improved turnout and a coordination pact, but... By James Brady Teneo
report October 19, 2021 MEXICO: Political considerations behind electricity reform The political noise surrounding President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)'s electricity sector reforms persists even if little significant movement has occurred since it was unveiled on 1 October. The reform, which would restore the state-run CFE electricity utility to... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 19, 2021 GERMANY: More substance, less lingo is needed as coalition talks begin The center-right Liberals (FDP) were the last party to agree to formal coalition talks on 18 October, but it is not yet clear on which exact date these will begin this week. The conclusions of the exploratory talks point... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 19, 2021 COTE D’IVOIRE: Gbago’s new party reshuffles Ivorian politics Over the weekend of 16/17 October, former president Laurent Gbagbo (76) officially launched his new African People's Party of Ivory Coast (PPA-CI) in Abidjan. By acclamation, some 1,600 delegates also elected Gbagbo as the party's first president. The new... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report October 19, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS China has tested a new missile. Turkey's currency is set for more volatility. Chile is on high alert. Meanwhile, a civilian-military standoff continues in Pakistan, formal coalition talks will begin in Germany, a constitutional amendment will be put to... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report October 19, 2021 SOUTH KOREA: On regional foreign policy, Seoul approaches a fork in the road Kim Jong-un's recent overtures are designed to drive wedges between South Korea and the US and between progressives and conservatives domestically; they speak to the real choice emerging in terms of Seoul's regional foreign policy ahead of the March... By Victor Cha Teneo
report October 19, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Chile marks two years since the outbreak of protests just as the constituent assembly born out of that unrest starts to debate the content of a new constitution. In Peru, a new stage of Pedro Castillo's presidency... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
