report September 27, 2021 GERMANY: Scholz is the election winner, but the proof is in the coalition talks As counting continues after the Bundestag elections, the race between the two main parties remains close. Both the Social Democrats (SPD) of Finance Minister of Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet's Christian Union (CDU/CSU) could each form a government with... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 24, 2021 CHINA: Evergrande fallout will test Beijing’s resolve to end property addiction Impending debt defaults by Evergrande are not China's "Lehman moment"; regulators have the capability to control systemic risk. The more important question is whether Evergrande's collapse will force policymakers to reverse the tightening measures designed to break the eco...... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 24, 2021 THAILAND: Attempting a path toward tourism normalcy, but it’s complicated Thailand will push forward with a broader reopening of its tourism sector in the fourth quarter due to the relatively positive experience in Phuket of foreigners not being a major source of transmission. The Phuket and Samui sandbox schemes... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 24, 2021 JAPAN: BOJ holds during the interregnum, details green lending facility The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held steady on policy and interest rates and remains cautiously optimistic on growth prospects, despite growing headwinds across Asia. Governor Kuroda also gave additional details of the new Climate Response Financing Operations, underlining how... By James Brady Teneo
report September 24, 2021 BRAZIL: Congress to lead on policy as President focuses on narratives President Jair Bolsonaro's controversial speech at the UN shows his continued need to focus on narrative-building as opposed to actual governing. Congress has occupied the vacuum, though significant differences of approach prevail between House and Senate. Budget challe... ... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report September 24, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: ANC improves candidate registration but election troubles remain The African National Congress (ANC) appears to have largely closed its self-inflicted candidate registration gap this week, but the party's electoral troubles do not end here. With just under six weeks to go to the 1 November municipal elections,... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 24, 2021 GREECE: Early elections in 2022? The possibility of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis calling snap elections is firmly back on the Greek political agenda, spurred by his recent fiscal relief pledges. While Mitsotakis is not expected to decide until early next year and much will... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 23, 2021 CHILE: Debate unlikely to change Boric versus Sichel dynamic The first televised candidates' debate took place yesterday, 22 September, ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 21 November. Below we examine the key takeaways: The polls going into last night's debate had the leftist Gabriel... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 23, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report September 22, 2021 GERMANY: What to watch on and beyond election night Ahead of the 26 September Bundestag elections, the overall polling picture remains unchanged. At around 25%, the Social Democrats (SPD) of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz continue to lead ahead of Armin Laschet's Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) - even if the... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 22, 2021 CHINA: Obstacles to CPTPP membership are not necessarily fatal China's application faces significant obstacles on issues including state-owned enterprises, labor rights, and data flows, but these challenges are not insurmountable. The fate of China's bid will likely depend more on political decisions by the bloc's existing 11 members... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 21, 2021 EU: Aukus – yet another driver for “strategic autonomy”? The EU's Australia trade deal might well turn out to be the first victim of the ongoing submarine crisis, even if Australian and French government officials suggest that talks are still ongoing for now. However, skeptical reactions from non-French... By Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 21, 2021 NIGERIA: Goodluck Jonathan’s potential comeback Rumors that former president Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) may soon be defecting from his People's Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) to become the ruling party's flagbearer for the 2023 presidential election may not be unsubstantiated. However,... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 21, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 20, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Argentina has a new cabinet after Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK) flexed her political muscles in the wake of the 12 September mid-term primaries. In Brazil, a report from the Senate inquiry into the government's handling of the... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 20, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Russian President Vladimir Putin's party won the State Duma elections. Voters will go to the polls in Germany. Turkey's central bank could start easing monetary policy. Meanwhile, China is defending its recent crackdown on tech companies, a leadership contest... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 20, 2021 RUSSIA: Implications of United Russia’s expected victory The State Duma election resulted in a widely anticipated victory of the ruling United Russia (UR) party, which is on track to retain a constitutional two- thirds majority in the 450-seat lower chamber of parliament. However, the vote cannot... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 19, 2021 JAPAN: The next prime minister’s economic policy agenda is emerging Taro Kono continues to lead in the polls as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential race officially began on 17 September but the contest to become Japan's next prime minister remains in flux, with factional unity breaking down and... By James Brady Teneo
report September 19, 2021 ETHIOPIA: Piling on sanctions pressure US President Joe Biden today, 17 September, signed an executive order authorizing sanctions on Ethiopia. In the first instance, the order is an attempt to force ceasefire negotiations in the 10-month-old Tigray conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report September 19, 2021 PHILIPPINES: The tangled web of the Duterte drama This week, Sara Duterte, the president's daughter, said she would seek reelection as mayor of the southern city of Davao, in support of her earlier statement that she would avoid what had until then been a presumed presidential run.... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
