report May 4, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Colombia’s government is on the ropes amid violent protests and the threat of a ratings downgrade if no tax reform can be passed. Brazil’s Senate enquiry into the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic gets underway. In... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report May 4, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The UK government is unlikely to grant a second Scottish independence referendum. China’s antitrust crackdown appears to continue. Colombia’s president has withdrawn a proposed tax reform. Meanwhile, Malaysia and Thailandmight introduce new restrictions to fight Covid-19, the Pol... Become a member to read the rest of this article... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report April 30, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Zondo commission appearance barely moves the political needle President Cyril Ramaphosa’s appearance at the Zondo inquiry into state capture this week did little to move the political needle or cleanse the ruling ANC of its reputational stains. While Ramaphosa will again be under scrutiny at the inquiry... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report April 29, 2021 CHINA: Alleged population decline is less than meets the eye China's statistics bureau has denied a Financial Times report claiming that China's yet-to-be released 2020 census shows a decline in population for the first time in 60 years. Several technical issues cast doubt on the FT report; decennial census figures are... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report April 29, 2021 BULGARIA: Heading toward snap parliamentary election in summer The center-left Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) will get a mandate to form a government next week but is unlikely to succeed. In such a case, the country’s constitution mandates the president appoint a caretaker government, dissolve parliament, and schedule... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report April 29, 2021 UK: The union’s future in spotlight European Parliament approval and the formal sign-off by EU member states marked the final stage in the ratification of the post-Brexit trade agreement. But the simultaneous resignation of Northern Ireland’s First Minister Arlene Foster highlights the Brexit-related challenges ar...... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report April 29, 2021 TURKEY: A likely futile lockdown Turkey will enforce its strictest nationwide lockdown from today (29 April) until 17 May to fight a surging third wave of coronavirus infections. Leaving aside the medical emergency, the idea is that a strict lockdown now will help to... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report April 28, 2021 MYANMAR: Still at square one, even after ASEAN summit A statement released yesterday, 27 April, by the State Administrative Council (SAC), as the junta calls itself, hedged its cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) following a weekend summit that sought to de-escalate the conflict. It... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report April 28, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report April 28, 2021 EU: The state of the debate on further stimulus As national recovery plans are being finalized, it appears unlikely that the EU will expand its post-pandemic recovery resources anytime soon. A gradual reopening of economies will likely make it difficult to argue politically for additional public spending, especially... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report April 28, 2021 NIGERIA: AFRICOM invitation highlights scale of security challenges On 27 April, President Muhammadu Buhari made a thinly veiled plea to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to relocate the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) from Germany to Nigeria. Regardless of the offer’s actual attractiveness from a US... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report April 28, 2021 CHILE: Another populist lurch as government beaten on third pension withdrawal The Constitutional Court (TC) yesterday, 27 April, voted not to admit the government’s legal challenge against an opposition-led initiative to allow people to withdraw up to 10% of their savings from the private pension (AFP) system – the third... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report April 28, 2021 RUSSIA: Subsiding tensions do not eliminate risks abroad and at home Russia’s pullback of troops deescalates tensions along the border with Ukraine, but the situation remains volatile. Diplomatic efforts to advance the resolution of the conflict in Donbas are expected to intensify in the coming months. At home, the Kremlin... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report April 27, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, in Chile, President Sebastian Pinera is mired in one of the most difficult periods of his troubled presidency as the issue of pension withdrawals sparks yet another political crisis. In Brazil, the government faces an enquiry into... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report April 27, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report April 27, 2021 US/CHINA: US legislation to counter China unlikely to spark retaliation Two pieces of legislation focused on US competition with China are likely to pass the US Congress with broad bipartisan support. The bills are an outgrowth of strong anti-China sentiment among US policymakers but are unlikely to trigger direct... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report April 26, 2021 INDIA: Government tries to regain control of the pandemic As India prepares to vaccinate everyone above the age of 18 against Covid-19 from 1 May amid a serious challenge to its crumbling medical infrastructure, public anger, so far dormant, is growing at the government's slow response, both federal... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report April 26, 2021 MENA: The two faces of Covid-19 in the region Compared to predictions of a year ago, the Middle East is in very good shape. However, beneath a facade of near-normalcy is a troubling fact: the disparity between the countries that have done best in the face of COVID-19... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report April 26, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS India will receive medical aid to combat the worst Covid-19 outbreak in the world. Italy’s Mario Draghi will present the post-pandemic recovery plan. China will allow inbound travelers from the US to enter if they are vaccinated. A general... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report April 26, 2021 PERU: The lowdown on hard-left outsider vying for the presidency The hard-left presidential candidate Pedro Castillo comfortably leads the polls with just under six weeks to go before the 6 June presidential run-off vote. Castillo has successfully tapped into voter discontent beyond Lima, which has surged amid the pandemic,... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
