report June 1, 2021 HONG KONG: Weighing the latest evidence on a potential foreign exodus Hong Kong has purchased enough vaccines for the city's entire population, but distrust of the government is fueling vaccine hesitancy. As of 1 June, only 21% of the city's total population of 7.5mn had received at least one vaccine... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report June 1, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS In China, three children will be allowed per family. Peru’s presidential run-off election takes place this week. A regional election will be held in Germany. Meanwhile, BRICS nations’ foreign ministers will meet virtually, Latvia’s municipal elections could have national... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 28, 2021 BRAZIL: Military challenged into supporting Bolsonaro’s autocratic reveries Amid rising rejection towards his government and strong support for a presidential candidacy by former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President Jair Bolsonaro seems to have doubled down on his die-hard, social media-driven constituency. According to the polls,... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report May 27, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 27, 2021 UK: Australia deal to go ahead, but questions remain around “Global Britain” Following some intense debate in cabinet, it is now likely that the UK and Australia will sign a new free trade agreement at the June G7 meeting in the UK when Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison will attend as... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report May 27, 2021 MALAYSIA: Important weeks ahead for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin Earlier this week, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin defended his government’s decision not to reimpose the strictest version of business and movement restrictions, called movement control orders (MCO) 1.0, despite the rising Covid-19 case numbers and some pressure from the... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report May 26, 2021 PERU: Electoral implications of Shining Path attack Late on 23 May, 16 people including at least two children were killed in an attack attributed to the remnant group of the Shining Path (SL) Maoist terrorist group. The attack took place in the remote Vizcatan district (Junin)... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report May 26, 2021 SPAIN: Playing for time in Catalonia (and Madrid) Following a deal between two secessionist parties, a new government was sworn in last week in the region of Catalonia. Despite the hardline rhetoric of new regional Prime Minister Pere Aragones, another unilateral push for independence remains unlikely. Rather,... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report May 26, 2021 CHINA: Crypto crackdown – is this time different? Three government-backed industry associations ordered financial institutions not to facilitate virtual currency transactions or provide any related services. But the impact is likely to be modest, as the latest crackdown does not go substantially beyond a previous ban in... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report May 26, 2021 MALI: Second coup d’état another blow for anti-terror efforts The second coup d’état in less than a year is yet another major setback for international efforts to contain the spread of jihadist militants across the Sahel, following last month’s coup d’état over in Chad. The episode showcases, once again,... Teneo
report May 25, 2021 BELARUS: An increasingly brash Lukashenko regime poses multiple risks to Europe The brazen arrest of a dissident journalist Roman Pratasevich reflects an increasingly restrictive and unpredictable political environment in Belarus, which will continue to pose multiple risks in Europe. The European Union’s (EU) sanctions will hurt the Belarusian aviation sect...... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report May 25, 2021 INDIA: Government gets moving on supporting businesses Facing concerted pressure from the most embattled sectors – tourism, aviation, travel, and hospitality – of the economy, the government is working on a package that will probably offer specially designed incentives, mostly tax-related, to enable these businesses to... By Aditi Phadnis Teneo
report May 25, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 24, 2021 NIGERIA: Strategic implications of Boko Haram leader’s alleged death On 20 May, a usually well-informed local news outlet reported that Boko Haram’s notorious leader Abubakar Shekau had died following a firefight with members of rivalrous splinter group Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP). While Shekau has had a... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report May 24, 2021 SOUTH KOREA/US: Biden-Moon summit produces deliverables The US-South Korea summit between presidents Biden and Moon on 21 May produced a series of agreements that invest in new dimensions of the alliance, including vaccine production. South Korean conglomerates announced major investment plans (semiconductor chips, lithium batteries... By Victor Cha Teneo
report May 24, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Ecuador gets a new president: the conservative ex-banker Guillermo Lasso. Peru is in the crucial final fortnight of the presidential run-off campaign amid signs that Keiko Fujimori may have reached her ceiling. The situation in Colombia remains... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report May 24, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The EU will discuss sanctions on Belarus. India’s foreign secretary will visit the US. Meanwhile, China’s regulatory focus on data privacy is increasing, environmental policies will be discussed at this week’s EU summit, Peru’s leading presidential candidates will engage... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report May 20, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE A summit between the US and Russian presidents in mid-June seems increasingly likely. Local elections in Croatia reaffirm the ruling party’s strength. A cabinet reshuffle in Latvia may take place after the municipal elections scheduled for 5 June. Meanwhile,... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report May 20, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Infection trends put travel plans on edge, spur vaccine search The countries to watch are Malaysia (community transmission), Indonesia (possible post-Idul Fitri spike) and Thailand (vaccine deliveries by Siam Bioscience). Thailand will continue with its phased tourism reopening plan, with a milestone scheduled for July, but public confidenc... ... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report May 20, 2021 COLOMBIA: No clear end in sight to protests After three weeks of often violent protests, President Ivan Duque continues to struggle with the fallout of his aborted tax reform. Events of the past 24 hours demonstrate how fluid the situation remains while also providing clearer indications of... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
