report September 9, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week France – The epidemiological outlook has continued to improve in the last week, with daily cases at... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report September 9, 2021 BRAZIL: Bolsonaro weaker after protests but early exit threats not in sight President Jair Bolsonaro's political situation is worse after the Independence Day (7 September) protests that he encouraged. The crowds were impressive in both Brasilia and Sao Paulo, the two cities where he chose to deliver speeches. Over the weekend preceding the events, the president went on social media to speak of peace and harmony – in a clear attempt... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report September 9, 2021 RUSSIA: Upcoming State Duma election heralds more authoritarianism The ruling United Russia (UR) party is set to achieve a convincing victory in the upcoming election to the State Duma (lower house of parliament) on 17-19 September. The Kremlin's objective is to retain a constitutional majority, ensure the vote's legitimacy, and avoid large-scale post-election protests. Major changes in the cabinet or the government's policy direction are unlikely after... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 9, 2021 US/CHINA: Beijing rebuffs Kerry’s call to treat climate change as a standalone Chinese leaders rejected a call from US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry to adopt more aggressive climate change targets. Kerry's interlocutors made clear that Beijing is unwilling to treat climate as a standalone issue separate from the tensions and stalemate on other issues. Among possible new initiatives for Beijing to announce at COP26, a pledge to halt... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report September 9, 2021 VENEZUELA: Positive early steps but mountain still to climb in political talks Regime and opposition negotiators announced two partial agreements at the end of three days of talks that culminated on 6 September. The two sides have agreed to build mechanisms to facilitate food aid and health assistance for the local population and announced they share positions in the long-running territorial dispute over the Essequibo region of Guyana. Another round of... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 9, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Still skeptical about Duterte for vice-president, until December President Rodrigo Duterte's PDP-Laban party formally nominated him at its party convention today, 8 September, to be its vice-presidential candidate in May 2022. However, Duterte factotum Senator Christopher Go, who was chosen to be its presidential bet, declined the nomination, and the party has not announced any replacement for him. The next step would be in the first week... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 8, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 8, 2021 GERMANY: Desperate debates about the Left Less than three weeks ahead of the Bundestag elections, the Social Democrats (SPD) of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz continue to build out their lead in the polls. The TV debate among the three chancellor candidates on 12 September might be one of the last opportunities for Armin Laschet to halt the decline of his Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) in the... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report September 8, 2021 CENTRAL ASIA: Implications of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan Concerns over security and uncontrolled migration have led to inconsistent and uncoordinated reactions from Central Asian governments to the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan. Multiple risks stemming from the uncertain political outlook in Afghanistan are underpinning closer cooperation between the Central Asian countries, Russia and China. The reaction of Central Asian governments to the fallout of the Taliban's... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 8, 2021 MEXICO: Prospects for AMLO’s three constitutional reform priorities Three constitutional reforms that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) wants to advance over the next 18 months face an uphill struggle. The congressional landscape is more complex following the June mid-terms, though AMLO is likely to probe the main opposition alliance for any weaknesses he can exploit. AMLO is already looking to smooth the succession path, which involves... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 8, 2021 FRANCE: State of the presidential race With around 200 days to go to the 2022 presidential election, no credible challenger to the Emmanuel Macron-Marine Le Pen duopoly has yet emerged. The key factor to watch remains whether the center-right can rally behind a single candidate ahead of the contest. Macron's allegedly upcoming push for a partial pension reform might elicit a backlash from trade unions,... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report September 8, 2021 GUINEA: Following coup d’etat, miners face medium-term risks On 5 September, special forces soldiers led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya arrested President Alpha Conde. During a subsequent broadcast on state TV, the putschists announced the suspension of state institutions, the temporary closure of national borders, and a nationwide curfew. In addition, a new constitution would be drawn up, and a'union government' would be formed, although no timelines were... By Malte Liewerscheidt Teneo
report September 7, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS Japan will soon have a new prime minister. Chinese officials allegedly rejected demands by the US climate envoy. Germany's Social Democrats continue to lead the polls. The presidents of Russia and Belarus will meet amid joint military exercises. Meanwhile, India's prime minister will chair the BRICS summit, Italy's government might extend the scope of the Covid-19 green pass, Colombia's... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report September 7, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, in Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro is aiming for a show of force in a day of protests. Argentina holds its primaries ahead of November's mid-terms. In Colombia, the new tax reform – the third such initiative under President Ivan Duque – goes to congressional votes this week. Ecuador is also gearing up for a difficult tax reform... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report September 3, 2021 JAPAN: The silence defeated Suga, as eyes turn now to Kono Strategic silence from Abe and Aso undermined Yoshihide Suga, but the prime minister's own gambits hastened his departure. Taro Kono is set to enter the race as the favorite, and Kishida may now be joined by Ishiba and other candidates. The LDP's prospects for the general election will now improve, as will the likelihood of another stimulus package The... By James Brady Teneo
report September 2, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Political and epidemiological crises are deepening in Bulgaria. In Romania, a dispute within the three-party coalition government over the local infrastructure investment program will likely lead to the replacement of the Prime Minister Florin Citu. Rising political tensions with Belarus and China could negatively affect Lithuania‘s economic growth. Finally, a long-awaited US- Ukraine summit laid the foundation for a... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report September 2, 2021 JAPAN: Suga juggles team but struggles to charm key groups; stimulus possible In a fast-changing political environment, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga looks set to contest the 29 September party leadership contest as scheduled and may call the general election for mid-October. Amid a spirited challenge from Fumio Kishida, Suga will reshuffle his deck but still needs to convince three key constituencies ahead of the party vote. With talk of a fourth... By James Brady Teneo
report September 2, 2021 BRAZIL: Day of economic reckoning for Bolsonaro President Jair Bolsonaro has resorted to combative discourse from the outset of his government. The strategy has always been to attack first and explain later, never to recognize mistakes, and at best deny what was said. Even when he has struck deals with other branches of government, he never refrains from confrontation to preserve die-hard positions dating back to... By Mario Marconini Teneo
report September 2, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: The outlook for domestic vaccine passports Wealthier countries such as Singapore and Malaysia are likely to lead in the use of digital vaccine passports. Ideological issues will not hinder policy at the outset, and neither will privacy concerns unless there are egregious loopholes in both the technology and implementation. Problems could manifest in lower-income countries like the Philippines and Indonesia, where the development and effective... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report September 2, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week Spain – Daily cases have continued to drop in the last week and stand at around 6,600.... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Luis Cornago, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
